Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 28.05.2021
Morning news

Julius Baer Resolves FIFA-Related Probe by U.S. Prosecutors

Topic of the day

Julius Baer Group AG agreed to pay about $80 million to resolve a criminal charge stemming from a U.S. investigation into bribery involving the world soccer federation FIFA. A subsidiary of the Swiss bank entered into an agreement with prosecutors to defer a money-laundering conspiracy charge during a virtual hearing before a federal judge in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Thursday. Prosecutors have agreed to dismiss the charge if Julius Baer abides by the terms of the deal for a three-year period. The charge stems from misconduct that took place around February 2013 and May 2015 and involved the payment of bribes to FIFA and its South American governing body, Conmebol, which were victims of the scheme, District Court Judge Pamela Chen said during the hearing. Julius Baer has said it began cooperating with the U.S. Justice Department in 2015, when prosecutors in New York unsealed racketeering and bribery-related charges against a number of FIFA officials.

Swiss stocks

On Thursday the Swiss stock market initially continued its record-breaking streak. The leading index SMI rose above the 11,400 point mark for the first time in the afternoon after the US stock markets started trading with gains. However, the index was unable to maintain the level: At the close of trading, it was 0.1 percent lower at 11,340 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were eleven gainers and eight losers, with one share closing unchanged. A total of 69.51 (previously: 34.22) million shares were traded. The market was led by the shares of banks. These benefited from a renewed rise in bond yields and positive analyst comments. Among others, Citigroup considers bank shares to be promising and counts the shares of CS Group among its favorites. These advanced 1.7 percent, while UBS rose 1.9 percent. Higher bond yields also helped insurers gain: Swiss Life gained 2.1 percent and Swiss Re 1.1 percent. Zurich closed unchanged. In opposite directions ran the shares of luxury goods manufacturers Richemont and Swatch. While investors took profits at Swatch (-0.6%) after the good run of the past few days, Richemont (+1.0%) continued to feed off the strong figures the company had published last Friday. Among the SMI heavyweights Roche went out of trading little changed. Novartis (-0.6%) and Nestle (-1.1%) were sold, however. Strong figures from the U.S. chip company Nvidia helped AMS shares to gain 3.4%. Sulzer's share price went up by a good 8.2 percent. The spin-off of the APS division was viewed positively.

International markets

Europe

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%. Airbus shares jumped 6%, as the plane maker set out plans to increase production. Bayer shares slumped 4%, after a U.S. judge rejected plans for the company to set aside $2 billion for people who aren't yet sick or haven't yet sued after getting cancer from using Roundup weedkiller. Bayer says it might remove the product from the U.S. entirely for retail users. Tate & Lyle shares fell 4%, after forecasting adjusted earnings per share to fall due to lower profitability in its commodities business and an increase in the tax rate, as it also said its artificial-sweetener making primary products unit was still on the market. U.S. investors have stepped up their purchases of European stocks - even as performance this year has been neck-and-neck with what they can get domestically. On Wednesday, European stock exchange-traded funds - the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF, the iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF, and the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF - accounted for three of the top eight stock funds purchased by U.S.-based investors. European stock ETFs have seen inflows of $7.6 billion from U.S. investors in 2021, according to FactSet data. The flows have come as Europe has stepped up its COVID-19 vaccination efforts, providing hope for an economic acceleration that so far has lagged behind, compared with the U.S., and as European stocks carry less demanding valuations. Analysts at Jefferies say their tracker of European activity was at 85% of pre-COVID-19 levels. "The euro area economy continues to bounce back, with the latest Ifo [Institute for Economic Research] and INSEE [National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies] surveys indicating a significant improvement in business confidence in Germany and in France, led by the services sector," they said, recommending payments company Adyen, payments-focused bank Nexi, and automobile maker Stellantis as ways to play the recovery. That said, stock-market performance has been roughly the same on both sides of the Atlantic. In dollar terms, the Stoxx Europe 600 has climbed 12% in 2021, as has the S&P 500.

United States

U.S. stocks rose Thursday after jobless claims fell to a new pandemic low in another sign of economic reopening. Major indexes are on track to end the week with gains as investors grow more comfortable with the idea that the Federal Reserve will maintain its supportive monetary policy despite near-term inflation as the economy heals from its pandemic-induced slowdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 141.59 points, or 0.4%, to 34464.64. The S&P 500 gained 4.89 points, or 0.1%, to 4200.88. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.72 points, or less than 0.1%, to 13736.28. Markets have stabilized after stumbling earlier in the month on concerns that the central bank would accelerate its timeline for scaling back easy-money policies. Although the data add to evidence of economic recovery, that doesn’t make it a given that major indexes will continue to vault higher. The S&P 500 has gained 88% since its lowest close in March 2020, fueled by extensive monetary and fiscal stimulus and expectations of a strong economic rebound. This week has brought a resurgence in the so-called meme stocks that captivated social media and the broader public earlier this year. After rallying throughout the week, shares of AMC Entertainment on Thursday surged $6.96, or 36%, to $26.52, their highest close since May 2017. GameStop shares added $11.57, or 4.8%, to $254.13, bringing their gains this week to 44%. Among other stocks, Ford Motor shares rose 98 cents, or 7.1%, to $14.88, rising for a second day after saying it expected 40% of its vehicle volume to be fully electric by 2030. Shares of Dollar Tree dropped $8.36, or 7.7%, to $100.11 after the discount retailer said that rising freight costs would cut into profits for its current fiscal year.

Asia

On the Asian stock exchanges on Friday the card economic recovery is played. The Nikkei-225 clearly leads the tableau in Asia with premiums of over 2 percent. In China, especially in the heartland, where the Shanghai Composite stagnates, the prices lag behind the Japanese development. The HSI in Hong Kong (+0.63%) shows at least friendly. In Seoul, the Kospi rose by 0.91 percent - driven by stocks from the automotive and steel sectors.

Bonds

Long-dated U.S. Treasurys on Thursday sold off and yields saw the steepest daily climb in over a week, as economic reports on balance confirmed a healthy economic recovery from the COVID pandemic and as fixed-income analysts parsed the Biden administration’s plan to release a multitrillion-dollar fiscal year 2022 budget on Friday. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 1.609%, up 3.7 basis points from Wednesday’s level 1.572%.

Analysis

RBC raises Kering target to EUR 775 (680) - Outperform
Berenberg raises Swisscom target to CHF 380 (340) - Sell
Jefferies raises Heidelcement to EUR 108.10 (96) - Buy

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