Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 22.02.2022
Morning news

Putin recognizes separatists in eastern Ukraine and sends army

Topic of the day

During the night, the events rolled over. At the opening of the stock markets in Europe, a slide in prices is expected. Russia has recognized the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine and is sending troops. This move is tantamount to a breach of international law and a formal denunciation of the Minsk peace agreement. With the U.S., relations are likely to deteriorate even further as a result. U.S. President Biden and the EU have already announced tough sanctions. In Asia, the stock markets reacted with heavy losses. Due to the dynamics of the news situation, even higher losses are to be expected. Bond markets are likely to benefit due to their status as supposed safe havens, and yields are expected to fall. Strategists are worried if the oil price should shoot above the 100-dollar mark due to the Ukraine crisis.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market emerged weaker from a nervous trading session on Monday. The SMI lost 1 per cent to 11,892 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 18 price losers and two price winners. 37.32 (previously: 39.82) million shares were traded. There was also new bad news about Credit Suisse. Various media outlets were leaked records that allegedly prove that the bank had done business with autocrats and heads of state, among others, in the past. The bank denied this, but the share price fell by 3.1 percent. The UBS share lost 2.6 per cent. Nestle shares, which are considered defensive, were sought after against the negative trend and improved by 0.4 per cent. Logitech (+0.4 per cent) also escaped the selling pressure. Sika (-0.3%) held up better than the market. Here, analysts at Morgan Stanley had raised the price target and reaffirmed the Overweight rating.

International markets

Europe

European shares closed sharply lower on Monday as early optimism about Ukraine was dampened by the Kremlin's comments that it was premature to talk about a summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 1.2% to 455.5 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and the SBF 120 both lost 2%. In Frankfurt, the DAX 40 was down 1.8%, while the FTSE 100 in London was down 0.3%. On Monday, Russia said it had destroyed two Ukrainian armored vehicles inside its territory, but offered no evidence of the alleged incursion, as Ukrainian and Western leaders warned that Moscow was seeking pretexts to attack. Russia’s deployment of more than 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine has led to the biggest standoff between Moscow and the West in years, with the U.S. warning of an imminent Russian invasion of its neighbor. Investors worry that a war between Ukraine and Russia could prolong elevated inflation in developed economies by disrupting supplies of important commodities. Russia is among the world’s largest suppliers of oil, as well as the biggest exporter of wheat, and a major metals producer. Ukraine is also a major world supplier of corn and wheat. Ubisoft Entertainment SA can remain independent amid the wave of consolidation that is sweeping through the videogame industry, and is ready to cash in on any opportunities that emerge from the development of the metaverse, Chief Executive Yves Guillemot said. The maker of the “Assassin’s Creed” videogame series has been watching from the sidelines as rivals have engaged in a flurry of deal-making over the last few weeks that has been a sign of the confidence in gaming’s potential as companies race to build the metaverse-a virtual world in which users can play, work and shop across different platforms using digital avatars.

United States

The US stock exchanges remained closed on Monday due to a holiday in the USA.

Asia

Stock markets in East Asia and Australia are trading in deep red on Tuesday after Moscow recognised the eastern Ukrainian "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Russia has ordered the deployment of troops to the separatist areas. Safe havens such as US bonds, yen, dolar or gold tend to be sought after as well as oil. Western politicians have strongly condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin's move. The US warns again of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Japan's Nikkei plunges 2.1 percent, dragged down especially by banking and insurance stocks. The Japanese government had organised a charter flight to evacuate compatriots from Ukraine on Monday. Bucking the trend, Casio Computer gains 0.2 per cent with a buyback programme.

Bonds

The yield on the 10-year German Bund rose to 0.211% from 0.192% late Friday. The yield on the US Treasury bond of the same maturity, the market's benchmark security, ended at 1.928% on Friday. The US bond market was closed on Monday due to a US holiday.

Analysis

UBS raises the Air France-KLM target to EUR 4.15 (4.10) – Neutral

CS raises the Renault target to EUR37 (36) – Neutral

JP Morgan raises the Glaxo target to 1,740 (1,710) p – Neutral

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