Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 24.02.2022
Morning news

Russia Attacks Ukraine, Drawing Broad Condemnation

Topic of the day

With the start of a major Russian offensive in Ukraine, prices on Europe's stock exchanges look set to plunge at the opening on Thursday. Russian troops and tanks pushed into Ukraine and airstrikes hit the country’s capital and more than a dozen other cities early Thursday after President Vladimir Putin said he ordered a military operation to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine” and bring its leaders to trial. Ukrainian officials said an initial wave of strikes targeted military installations, airfields and government facilities across the country, as well as border force installations. Ukraine’s border service said its troops came under attack all along the country’s frontiers with Russia and Belarus. In Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine’s largest city, residents said a large fire was visible in the morning darkness, after what appeared to be a hit at a weapons depot. Heavy shelling targeted the city of Mariupol on the Azov sea. Air-raid sirens sounded in Kyiv after 7 a.m.

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Swiss stocks

Swiss shares barely held their ground at the end of trading on Wednesday. The SMI lost 0.1 per cent to 11,942 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were twelve price losers and eight price winners. 33.48 (previously: 46.74) million shares were traded. Investors mostly preferred defensive stocks to cyclicals. Nestle rose 0.1 per cent, Givaudan 1.0 per cent and Swisscom 0.2 per cent. Among the cyclicals, Holcim lost 2.4 per cent and ABB 1.7 per cent. Sika, however, gained 1.3 per cent to 302.80 francs. Here, the upgrade to "buy" with a new price target of 390 francs by analysts at Stifel provided support. Furthermore, analysts at Jefferies had reiterated their buy recommendation and raised the price target to 459 from 456 francs. Business figures came from the third row. Valora had reported a return to profit for 2021, which drove the share up by 7.9 percent. The figures from Zehnder (+4.7%) and Kudelski (+7.9%) were also positively received.

International markets

Europe

European equity indices closed broadly lower on Wednesday, giving up gains in the latter part of the session as fears of a Russian offensive in Ukraine intensified. The Stoxx Europe 600 index lost 0.3% to 453.86 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and the SBF 120 each lost 0.1%. In Frankfurt, the DAX 40 gave up 0.4% and, in London, the FTSE 100 nibbled 0.05%. Ukraine shifted to a war footing on Wednesday, declaring a state of emergency, beginning to mobilize reservists and calling on its citizens to immediately leave Russia amid warnings of an imminent full-scale invasion. Munich Re AG posted higher profit for the fourth quarter and set out its forecasts for the year after January renewals showed premium growth and rising prices. The German reinsurer said Wednesday that net profit jumped to 868 million euros ($983 million) from EUR208 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. Gross premiums written increased to EUR14.89 billion from EUR13.63 billion. Its operating result rose to EUR962 million from EUR481 million. Rio Tinto PLC, one of the world’s biggest mining companies, said it made a record profit in 2021 and would nearly double its full-year payout to shareholders, becoming the latest resources company to report a surge in earnings from increased commodity prices. Rio Tinto on Wednesday said it made a net profit of $21.09 billion last year, up from $9.77 billion in 2020.

United States

U.S. stocks fell, deepening to their losses after concerns over the Ukraine crisis helped push the S&P 500 into correction territory. The threat of war in Ukraine has added to uncertainty in global markets. The S&P 500 ended 1.8% lower, a day after closing down more than 10% from its Jan. 3 record following Russia's deployment of soldiers in Ukraine's Donbas region. Ukraine declared a state of emergency and began to mobilize reservists, calling on its citizens to immediately leave Russia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4% while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite retreated 2.6%. The losses were broad-based with 10 of the S&P 500's 11 sectors down for the day. The consumer discretionary segment fell 2.9%, while the tech segment dropped 2.1%. Only the energy group defied the trend, rising 1.1%. Investors say the effects of the tensions on Eastern Europe on stocks and bonds are hard to predict. The implications depend on rapidly moving diplomatic and military developments as well as the possible spillover of higher energy prices into inflation in Western economies. Lowe’s Cos. Inc. surprised Wall Street with its management of costs and pricing in the latest quarter, lifting investors’ sentiment about the home-improvement retailer amid a slowing outlook for the sector’s sales. Lowe’s shares were ahead 3.7% midday Wednesday at $222.34 after the company said that sales growth will ease this year but projected its profitability will improve. That came a day after its larger competitor, Home Depot Inc., gave a similar sales outlook for 2022 and saw its shares drop about 9%, the biggest one-day loss for the stock in nearly two years. Home Depot shares were down about 1% on Wednesday Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Jim Farley said the auto maker doesn’t intend to spin off its electric-vehicle business, tamping down speculation that the company could break off its EV operations to boost market value.

Asia

Stock markets in East Asia and Australia buckle with the military operation in Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The price of oil rises sharply in Asian trading and the US dollar and Japanese yen are in demand as safe havens on the foreign exchange market.

Bonds

US bonds were still not in demand. The US sanctions against Russia were not as severe as feared, it was said yesterday.

Analysis

BoA raises the Orange target to EUR 8.25 (7.95) – Underperform

CS lowers the HSBC target to 565 (575) p – Neutral

Citi raises the LVMH target to EUR 871 (842) – Buy

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