Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 21.04.2022
Morning news

Procter & Gamble Posts Biggest Sales Gain in Decades -- and a Word of Caution

Topic of the day

Procter & Gamble Co.'s booming quarter came with a warning while it shares rose $4.24, or 2.7%, to $163.65. The maker of Tide detergent and Gillette razors on Wednesday posted its biggest quarterly sales gain in at least two decades as consumers, so far undeterred by inflation and the threat of a recession, paid more for household mainstays and gravitated toward higher-end options. Executives also said they are girding for a possible downturn in consumer spending, betting that shoppers will eventually balk at ever-higher prices on household staples as inflation soars. The Cincinnati consumer-products company said organic sales rose 10% for the quarter ended March 31, the biggest jump since P&G started tracking the metric 20 years ago. Organic sales is a closely watched figure that strips out deals and currency moves. In the latest quarter, the company's healthcare segment, which houses brands such as Crest toothpaste and Vicks cold medicine, saw organic sales rise 16% as the company raised prices, consumers switched to premium products and a more severe cough, cold and flu season drove up demand for over-the-counter medications. The two divisions that make home-care and laundry products and baby and feminine-care products each notched 10% gains. Pricing overall rose 5%, while sales volumes increased 3%. The only drag was foreign exchange, which lowered revenue by 3%. Profit increased as well, albeit more modestly than sales, as P&G absorbed higher costs for materials and transportation and spent more on new products and packaging. P&G reported earnings per share of $1.33, up 6% from the same period a year earlier, while revenue climbed 7% to $19.4 billion. P&G on Wednesday raised its organic-sales growth forecast to a range of 6% to 7%, up from its earlier forecast of 4%-to-5% growth for the fiscal year ending June 30. It predicted core earnings per share will rise about 3%, the low end of its forecast of 3%-to-6% growth.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market recorded slight gains on Wednesday. The SMI increased by 0.2 per cent to 12,310 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 14 price gainers and 6 price losers. 35.45 (previously: 37.57) million shares were traded. Credit Suisse declined 1.5% after the bank warned that it is likely to report a loss in the first quarter due to having to set money aside for legal issues. After reporting figures, Zur Rose fell by 2.2 per cent. In particular, the weaker German business weighed. While the business in Switzerland benefited from a normalisation of the Covid 19 situation and rising drug prices, sales growth in Germany slowed, according to Warburg. Cyclicals were among the sought-after stocks. ABB, for example, gained 0.9 per cent and Holcim 2 per cent. Defensive pharmaceutical giants sold off. Novartis and Roche each fell 0.8 per cent. Straumann trended little changed. The share experienced a 1:10 split on Wednesday.

International markets

Europe

European shares rose Wednesday, recovering some of the previous session's losses. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.8% to 460.1 points, after giving up 0.8% the previous day. In Paris, the CAC 40 and the SBF 120 rose by 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively. In Frankfurt, the DAX 40 gained 1.5% while in London the FTSE 100 gained 0.4%. Danone's shares (+5.8%) soar Wednesday at market opening following a broadbased sales beat in the first quarter and reiteration of guidance for the full year despite inflationary and supply-chain pressures. Danone (+5.8%) recorded organic growth of 7.1% in the first quarter, higher than analysts' expectations, who were expecting an average increase of 5.5%, according to Invest Securities. Danone has confirmed that it expects like-for-like sales growth of between 3% and 5% this year, driven by the price effect, and a current operating margin of over 12%. These forecasts take into account input cost inflation of around 15% in 2022. Teleperformance (+5.8%) also beat the forecasts in the first quarter. The call centre operator reported a turnover of 1.96 billion euros, about 3% higher than analysts' estimates, according to Deutsche Bank. In Frankfurt, equipment maker Siemens Energy fell 1.6% after it posted an unexpected loss and said it was reassessing its full-year guidance.

United States

U.S. stock indexes posted mixed results and bond yields paused a recent climb as investors assessed the impact of higher inflation on corporate earnings. The S&P 500 slipped 2.76 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 4459.45 Wednesday, a day after the broad-market index closed up 1.6%. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index fell 166.59 points, or 1.2%, to 13453.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 249.59 points, or 0.7%, to 35160.79. Stocks have had a strong start to the week, lifted by earnings reports that showed companies have largely been able to generate growth despite tightening monetary policy and the highest inflation in four decades. Netflix’s report after hours on Tuesday disappointed, driving losses in the Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday. Procter & Gamble reported its biggest jump in sales in two decades. Investors are scrutinizing corporate performance in an environment with rising prices. IBM climbed $9.17, or 7.1%, to $138.32 after it reported stronger-than-expected revenue growth driven by its cloud business. Netflix shares fell $122.42, or 35% to $226.19, its largest one-day percentage decrease since 2004, after it said its subscriber base shrank by 200,000 in the last quarter and predicted the loss of another two million subscribers this quarter. The S&P 500’s communications services sector, of which Netflix is a component, was down 4.1%. Netflix lost about $54.3 billion in market value Wednesday, a drop larger than the bottom seven companies in the S&P 500 combined, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Other streaming companies fell: Paramount dropped $3.12, or 8.6%, to $33.16; Warner Bros. lost $1.48, or 6%, to $23.01; Walt Disney slid $7.33, or 5.6%, to $124.57; and Spotify fell $14.92, or 11%, to close at $122.49. In economic news, U.S. home prices reached a record $375,300 in March as mortgage-interest rates shot up and a shortage of homes for sale continued to thwart buyers. The Federal Reserve in a report said the U.S. economy grew at a modest pace in early spring amid high inflation and geopolitical instability.

Asia

In Asia, th weakness of the Chinese stock markets continued for the third day in a row on Thursday, albeit with increasing pressure to sell. Concerns about the economic slowdown in China are growing, according to traders. Disappointment over the central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates the previous day is rising. On the Chinese mainland, the Shanghai composite plunged 1.6 per cent and Hong Kong's HSI fell 1.7 per cent. Meanwhile, A-shares in oil company CNOOC were suspended from trading having reached the daily limit, after the shares shot up 44 per cent on their debut in Shanghai. In Hong Kong, tech stocks in particular are following their US counterparts on the way down - driven by the slump in Netflix. JD.com slipped by 4 per cent, Meituan 3.6 per cent, Alibaba Health Information Technology 3.4 per cent and NetEase 2.9 per cent. In Tokyo, the Nikkei-225 is friendly (+1.1%) - supported by a falling yen. Meanwhile, the Kospi in South Korea rises by 0.5 per cent - fuelled by premiums in the electronics and chemicals sectors. Bucking the US trend, technology heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rise by 1 and 1.3 per cent respectively.

Bonds

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 10 basis points to 2.846%, pulling away from its highest level in more than three years as buyers returned to the government bond market. The 30-year bond had its biggest one-day drop in nearly two months. The 2-year yield lost nearly 3 basis points.

Analysis

SMC raises Biogate target to EUR 7.50 (6.90) - Speculative Buy

H&A lowers target SAF-Holland to EUR 13.60 (17.40) - Buy

Dt. Bank cuts Prudential target to 1,475 (1,550) p - Buy

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