Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 16.12.2022
Morning news

H&M Sales Rise but Lag Behind Rival as Growth Slows

Topic of the day

H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB (-6.9%) reported a 12% rise in annual sales but the rate of growth slowed in the fourth quarter as the fast-fashion giant grapples with economic uncertainty. The retailer said revenue for the 12 months to Nov. 30 came in at 224 billion Swedish krona, equivalent to $21.84 billion. That means the company has yet to bounce back to prepandemic levels, having reported sales of 233 billion krona in 2019. While H&M has previously said that its collections this year have been well received by shoppers, its overall performance in 2022 has been hampered by the closure of its stores in Russia and Belarus in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Rolling lockdowns in China have also taken their toll, necessitating the temporary closure of up to 50 stores in the most recent quarter, the company said. H&M’s shares fell around 4% in early trading Thursday. H&M’s performance lagged behind that of rival Inditex SA, the owner of Zara, which on Wednesday reported a 19% rise in sales for the nine months to Oct. 31, compared with the same period last year. While it too saw a slowdown in the fourth quarter, its sales for the nine months were up 17% compared with the same period of 2019.

Swiss stocks

Swiss stocks tumbled on Thursday as investors went on a selling spree, weighed down by fears about a recession after several central banks, including the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve, raised their interest rates and signalled more increases in the coming months. Switzerland's central bank raised its key interest rate for the third straight meeting today and said it cannot rule further tightening in the policy rate, to counter rising inflationary pressures and spread of inflation. The central bank raised its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, in line with expectations. This was the third consecutive rate increase after the 75 basis points hike at the September meeting took the rate to positive zone for the first time since early 2015. 'It cannot be ruled out that additional rises in the SNB policy rate will be necessary to ensure price stability over the medium term,' the bank said in the statement. The benchmark SMI ended with a loss of 280.55 points or 2.51% at 10,880.14, the day's low. The index stayed weak right through the day's session. All the components of SMI ended in the red. Sonova, the biggest loser, ended 5.42% down. Sika, ABB, Holcim, Partners Group, Richemont, Lonza Group, Alcon, Geberit and Nestle lost 3 to 4%. UBS Group, Swiss Life Holding, Credit Suisse, Swiss Re, Novartis and Roche Holding also ended sharply lower.

International markets

Europe

European stocks and most of the markets across the region ended with sharp losses, hitting multi-week lows, as interest rate hikes and hawkish comments by several central banks hurt sentiment. The ECB has raised interest rates by 50 basis points today, slowing the pace of increases after raising rates by 75 points at the previous two meetings. The bank says it expects to raise rates further as 'inflation remains far too high and is projected to stay above the target for too long.’ The BoE lifted its benchmark rate for the ninth consecutive meeting on Thursday but moderated the pace of tightening from the previous session's 75 basis point hike amid rising concerns that the UK economy is in recession. The rate-setting committee of the BoE raised the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 3.5%, the highest since October 2008. The pan European Stoxx 600 ended 2.85% down. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 dropped 0.93%, Germany's DAX tumbled 3.28% and France's CAC 40 drifted down 3.09%. Retail stocks (-4.0%) clearly brought up the rear among the sectors, along with tech stocks (-4.7%). Shares in luxury goods manufacturers, which are heavily dependent on business in China, were also under pressure. LVMH, Hermes, Richemont and Kering lost up to 5.6 per cent. Growth concerns in the sector and reports of alleged interest in Schenker, Deutsche Bahn's logistics subsidiary, sent Deutsche Post down 7.2 per cent. Kühne & Nagel slipped 3.3 per cent. Ceconomy slumped by 13 per cent. The company posted a bottom-line profit in the past financial year, but it was significantly lower than in the previous year. Siemens Healthineers fell by 5.6 per cent. In trading, reference was made to a Bloomberg article. The company is said to be interested in parts of the medical technology group Medtronic. GE Healthcare is also rumoured to be keen on the division, which among other things manufactures respiratory equipment for use in lung diseases. The transaction could be worth more than 7 billion dollars, according to the report. Munich Re closed down 2.6 per cent after the reinsurer issued a profit forecast of 4 billion euros for 2023, based on new mandatory accounting.

United States

U.S. stock losses deepened Thursday, after central bank officials on both sides of the Atlantic signaled they have more work to do to tame inflation and a batch of fresh data heightened recession fears. The S&P 500 fell 99.57 points, or 2.5%, to 3895.75 Thursday. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite dropped 360.36 points, or 3.2%, to 10810.53. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 764.13 points, or 2.2%, to 33202.22. The Bank of England and the ECB each raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage point Thursday. The central banks of Switzerland and Norway also raised interest rates. Citigroup (-2.9%) has begun closing its retail banking business in China as part of its strategy to refocus on international private banking and wealth management. Adobe lost 3.3 percent despite better-than-expected results for the 4th quarter. Property developer Lennar finished up 3.8% after reporting better-than-expected revenue in the fourth quarter of its 2021-2022 off-year. The group expects to deliver between 60,000 and 65,000 homes in the new financial year. Warner Bros Discovery (-8.9%) will take a pre-tax charge of $4.1bn to $5.3bn to reflect impairments and the termination of content projects following the merger between Discovery and AT&T subsidiary WarnerMedia. Novavax fell more than 34% as the pharmaceutical company announced plans for a $125 million capital increase and a convertible bond issue for the same amount. Netflix shares edged 8.6% lower after US media reports that the streaming video company's new ad-supported service is off to a rocky start.

Asia

Stocks in Asia mostly fell on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 2% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong almost unchanged. China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.3%. The Kospi in South Korea slipped 0.4 per cent. Kakao Corp. edged another 1.3% lower after the previous day's losses. Shares of used car dealer K Car added 3.5% based on reports that the company is looking for a buyer. In Japan, Toshiba nevertheless increased by 2.5 per cent after reports that a group led by the equity investment firm Japan Industrial Partners has secured financing for the takeover of the industrial company. In Hong Kong, Country Garden gained 2.9 per cent and China Resources Land advanced 3.0 per cent. In Shanghai, Gree Real Estate increased by the daily limit of 10 per cent. CCCG Real Estate gained 7.4 per cent.

Bonds

Investors flocked to the safety of U.S. government debt on Thursday, sending 10- and 30-year yields to one-week lows, after weak U.S. data reinforced the prospects of a 2023 recession. The 10-year Treasury note fell by 5 basis points to 3.452%. The 2-year Treasury note shed 1 basis point to 4.328%.

Analysis

Citi cuts Zur Rose target to CHF 22 (23) - Sell
Deutsche Bank lowers Givaudan target to CHF 3,100 (3,150) - Hold
CS lifts Pernod-Ricard to Outperform (Neutral) - Target EUR 230 (205)

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