Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 24.04.2023
Morning news

CS records asset outflows of 61 billion by the end of March

Topic of the day

Credit Suisse suffered total asset outflows of CHF 61.2 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The quarterly report of the crisis-ridden big bank published on Monday reveals as much. However, the financial results of Switzerland's second-largest bank for the first three months of the year will be strongly influenced by the upcoming merger with UBS. Due to the write-off of the AT1 instruments ordered in the context of the CS rescue, a net profit of 12.4 billion francs resulted. CS reported a pre-tax profit of CHF 12.8 billion. Adjusted, however, the ailing bank posted a pre-tax loss of CHF 1.3 billion for the first three months. Credit Suisse Group AG bondholders have launched a legal challenge in Switzerland against regulators' decision to write down $17 billion in securities as part of UBS Group AG's rescue of the troubled bank last month. Bondholders holding about 4.5 billion Swiss francs ($5 billion) of Credit Suisse's canceled debt want the decision to write down their bonds revoked or amended, according to an outline of their appeal made in a Swiss administrative court. Typically, shares in a bank would have to be written down entirely before creditors would have to take losses or be bailed in.

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Swiss stocks

On Friday, the SMI gained 0.6 per cent to 11,461 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were eleven price gainers and nine price losers. 48.04 (Thursday: 34.82) million shares were traded. Nevertheless, the SMI was mostly led by shares of companies that are considered to be less dependent on the economy. Alcon gained 2.1 per cent, followed by defensive heavyweights Nestle (+1.4%) and Roche (+1.2%). Novartis rose 0.9 per cent and Swisscom ended the day 0.3 per cent higher. Quarterly figures and outlook from Holcim (-0.3%) provided little movement in the share price. The cement manufacturer raised its annual forecast after a strong first quarter and now expects organic sales growth of more than 6 per cent, after 3 to 5 per cent had previously been forecast. BB Biotech also ended the trading session 2.8 per cent weaker after presenting quarterly figures. The company itself spoke of a subdued quarter. The shares of Georg Fischer (-1.5%) and Bucher (-4.0%) traded ex-dividend. Adjusted for the dividend markdowns, both shares edged higher.

International markets

Europe

European stocks were mostly higher on Friday, following data from a purchasing managers survey showed activity in the eurozone manufacturing and services sectors increased in April. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.3% to 469 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 gained 0.5%, setting a new closing record at 7,577.00 points. The SBF 120 also advanced by 0.5%. The DAX 40 in Frankfurt climbed 0.5%, while the FTSE 100 in London added 0.2%. For the week as a whole, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.5%. EssilorLuxottica (+6.3%) was the biggest performer among the CAC 40, after reporting first-quarter sales of EUR 6.15 billion, higher-than-expected by analysts. Digital assistance services provider Solutions 30 (-5%) posted a net loss of €50.1m in 2022, compared with a net profit of €21.5m in 2021. Ipsos (-13.2%) published a 2.8% organic decline in revenues in the first quarter, to €532 million. Veolia increased by 1.1% to 29.40 euros, supported by Deutsche Bank which raised its recommendation on the stock from "hold" to "buy" and increased its target price from 24 to 33 euros, due to a "low valuation multiple and improved communication". In addition, Veolia won an operating contract for a new waste-to-energy plant in Istanbul, Turkey. Fnac Darty (-4.3%) reported stable first quarter revenues of €1.78bn.

United States

U.S. stocks wobbled Friday to close out the week with slight declines as investors weighed quarterly reports from banks and mixed economic data. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite each closed about 0.1% higher on Friday. The indexes oscillated between small gains and losses throughout the session. Investors eyed quarterly results from big financial institutions and regional banks this week to assess how lenders are holding up after the March collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Truist Financial on Friday fell 6% as the bank reported earnings that missed analyst expectations. Western Alliance gained 2.6% on Friday after the bank said this week that deposit outflows had stabilized. The earnings reporting season ramps up this week with megacap companies like Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. com on the docket. Plus, investors will get a slew of economic data, including preliminary gross-domestic-product estimates for the first quarter and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Procter & Gamble (+3.5%) raised its annual sales forecast after posting higher-than-expected results in the first quarter. The group is benefiting from its ability to pass on costs to its selling prices, which have risen by 10% over the past year. US supermarket Whole Foods, a subsidiary of Amazon (+3%), plans to cut several hundred administrative and sales jobs as part of restructuring and streamlining its operations. Tesla (+1.3%) raised the price of its top-of-the-line Model S and Model X in the US. The electric carmaker has cut prices several times in the US since the beginning of the year. Tesla shares fell 9.8% on Thursday after the company reported a sharp decline in first-quarter profitability due to price cuts.

Asia

Stocks in Asia mostly fell on Monday. Bucking the regional trend, the Nikkei-225 in Japan is slightly firmer. In the run-up to the spring holiday season, participants are betting on a recovery of the travel sector boosting airline and railway stocks. Japan Airlines gains 2 per cent and West Japan Railway 1.6 per cent. ANA Holdings rises 2.5 per cent after the company lifted net profit forecasts for the past fiscal year. The Chinese stock markets are slightly down. China Satellite Communications falls 9.8 per cent as the lock-up period for the shares expires. New China Life Insurance, on the other hand, climbs 5.8 per cent after the insurer nearly doubled its net profit in the first quarter. Semiconductor and industrial commodity stocks drag the Kospi down 0.3 per cent in Korea.

Bonds

U.S. treasury yields finished higher for the second straight week on Friday as traders weighed this week’s U.S. economic data, though the 1-month T-bill rate plunged because of ongoing concerns about the debt ceiling debate in Congress. The 10-year Treasury note rose by 3 basis points to 3.572%. The 2-year Treasury note gained 4 basis points to 4.175%. The yield of the 2-year Swiss Confederation bonds was last quoted at 1.047% and that of the benchmark 10-year at 1.096%.

Analysis

Target price Schindler PS: Vontobel raises to CHF 200 (190) - Hold

Target price SGS: UBS lowers to CHF 90 (92) - Neutral

Target price SIG Group: Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades to CHF 26 (22.50) - Hold

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