Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 08.05.2023
Morning news

Robust Hiring in April Shows U.S. Job Market Remains Hot in Cooling Economy

Topic of the day

Americans landed jobs and their wages increased in April, showing the labor market is resilient amid banking turmoil, rising interest rates and high inflation. Employers added 253,000 jobs in April, the best gain since January, the Labor Department said Friday. Job growth was revised lower in February and March. The jobless rate fell to 3.4% last month, matching the lowest reading since 1969. The low unemployment rate keeps upward pressure on wages, which grew 4.4% in April from a year earlier. That was slightly higher than a 4.3% annual increase in March. Over the past year, inflation hit historic highs, economic growth slowed, the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates and stress emerged in the banking sector. Many economists anticipated those challenges would trigger the labor market to crack.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market ended the last trading day of the week on a positive note. The SMI improved by 0.9 per cent to 11,554 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 18 price gainers and 2 price losers. 29.89 (previously: 39.73) million shares were traded. Along with the strong recovery of bank stocks in the USA, the shares of CS Group and UBS also posted marked increases. With rises of 5.1 and 3.9 per cent respectively, they were at the top of the SMI performers. Clariant shares, on the other hand, fell by 0.2 per cent. The results for the first quarter were rather worse than anticipated, according to analysts at Baader. The chemical company reported a 5 per cent decline in organic sales in the first quarter, which was mainly due to currency effects that offset a price increase, according to the analysts.

International markets

Europe

European stock markets closed firmly in positive territory on Friday as the United States created more jobs than expected in April, leading investors to believe that a soft landing for the US economy was still possible. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 1.1% to 465.3 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and the SBF 120 rose 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. The DAX 40 in Frankfurt advanced 1.4% and the FTSE 100 in London added 1%. However, the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.5% for the week as a whole. Cable manufacturer Nexans (+5.1%) signed a framework agreement with TenneT, the Dutch electricity transmission network operator. Chemicals group Arkema (+3.8%) reported lower but better-than-expected results for the first quarter of 2023, according to Citi. Carrier Air France-KLM (-2.6%) reported worse-than-expected first-quarter results and lowered its 2023 capacity forecast. Leisure vehicle manufacturer Trigano (+2%) announced that it has entered into exclusive negotiations to buy its subsidiary BIO Habitat from boat and mobile home manufacturer Bénéteau (+3.4%). Media and entertainment group Vivendi (+1%) has obtained authorisation from the Spanish government to increase its stake in Madrid-based media group Prisa, according to a notice published on Friday by the Comisión nacional del mercado de valores (CNMV), Spain's financial markets authority. British airline group IAG (+2.3% in London) posted higher-than-expected results for the first quarter of 2023 and raised its projections for the full year 2023.

United States

Stocks ripped higher Friday on the back of an upbeat jobs report, capping a tumultuous week that saw regional bank stocks buckle even after JPMorgan Chase swooped in to buy failing First Republic Bank and the Federal Reserve chairman said the banking system was sound. Risk appetite returned after Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, reported first-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations after the closing bell Thursday. Apple shares rallied 4.7%, helping to snap the S&P 500’s four-day losing streak. The S&P 500 closed up 1.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 546.64 points, or 1.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2.2%. Regional bank fears also appeared to ease Friday after an ugly selloff earlier in the week. Shares of PacWest and Western Alliance, the latest regional lenders to come under pressure, regained some ground, with PacWest up 82% and Western Alliance 49% higher. Both lenders were still down on the week. Zions Bancorp was the best performer in the S&P 500, adding 19%. A number of companies posted strong earnings results on Thursday and Friday. Apple reported a surge in iPhone sales, powered by growth in emerging markets such as India. Online used-car seller Carvana, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and sports-betting platform DraftKings all surged after posting results, up 24%, 18% and 15%, respectively. Concert promoter and operator Live Nation Entertainment rallied 15% after telling investors that its higher-than-expected first-quarter revenue reflected “incredible” demand for live concerts. On the other end of the spectrum, Lyft sank 19% after the ride-hailing company offered a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast. Lyft shares are down by more than half over the past year.

Asia

In Asia, major indexes broadly closed with gains. The strongest performance occurred in Shanghai with a 1.6 per cent increase. Elsewhere, the gains turn out to be slightly smaller between 0.6 and 0.8 per cent. Tokyo stands out as an exception. The Nikkei-225 dropped 0.7 per cent to 20,958 points after three days of holiday breaks in Japan. In Seoul, the share of Apple supplier LG Innotek advances 5.4 per cent. SK Innovation climbed 6.4 per cent despite weak first-quarter figures. The energy company's good prospects played a greater role, according to traders. The quarterly figures of the internet giant Naver (+4.8 per cent) were well received.

Bonds

A midweek bond rally fuelled by worries over the economy and banking system in the U.S. was cut short on Friday when the labor market again proved surprisingly resilient. Yields on U.S. Treasuries climbed after jobs data showed hiring remains strong and wages continue to rise, sparking a selloff in the Treasury market. The two-year yield surged to 3.912% from 3.727% on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year note finished at 3.437%, up from 3.350% on Thursday.

Analysis

Target price Barry Callebaut: Credit Suisse raises to CHF 2300 (2265) - Outperform

Rating Dufry: MS upgrades to Overweight (Equal Weight) - Target 56 (58) CHF

Fair Value Swiss Re: DZ Bank lowers to CHF 95 (101) - Hold

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