Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 20.07.2023
Morning news

Netflix Password-Sharing Crackdown Delivers Jolt of New Subscriber Growth

Topic of the day

Netflix’s global password-sharing crackdown delivered robust subscriber growth in the second quarter, a boon for the company as its rivals struggle with flagging TV businesses and costly pivots to streaming. Netflix gained 5.9 million subscribers in the second quarter, with growth in each region, as people who are no longer able to share the service free opted to pay for their own accounts. The company said it is now rolling out that effort in nearly every remaining country. The continuing Hollywood writers and actors strikes mean Netflix is poised to spend less on content this year, the company said. It raised its free cash flow forecast to $5 billion from an earlier estimate of $3.5 billion. Its strong performance is a marked change from a year ago, when the streaming service lost subscribers in two consecutive quarters for the first time in its history.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market ended marginally up on Wednesday after staying positive right through the day's session. However, stocks moved in a tight band and the benchmark SMI swung between 11,119.02 and 11,1761.84, before settling at 11,120.15 with a gain of 16.60 points or 0.15%. Partners Group climbed 2.72%. Sonova and Geberit gained 1.27% and 1.09%, respectively. Sika, Zurich Insurance Group, Roche Holding, Givaudan and Swiss Life Holding gained 0.5 to 1%. Richemont declined 2.2% and ABB ended 1.7% down. Kuehne & Nagel lost 0.81%. In the Mid Price Index, DocMorris ended 2.56% up. Ems Chemie Holding gained 1.67%. Belimo Holding, PSP Swiss Property, Bachem Holding, Baloise Holding and Swiss Prime Site moved up 0.7 to 1%. Swatch Group drifted down 2.65%. Dufry and Tecan Group ended lower by 1.95% and 1.8%, respectively. Schindler Holding, Schindler Ps and Lindt & Spruengli also closed notably lower.

International markets

Europe

European stocks closed broadly higher on Wednesday with the UK market outperforming other major markets after data showed UK headline inflation fell to a 15-month low. Soft inflation data from the UK and Europe, and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle will end soon helped underpin sentiment. The pan European Stoxx 600 advanced 0.26%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 climbed 1.8%. Germany's DAX ended 0.1% down and France's CAC 40 edged up 0.11%, while Switzerland's SMI gained 0.15%. Among other markets in Europe, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal and Turkiye closed higher. Finland ended modestly higher. Russia and Sweden closed weak, while Denmark, Netherlands and Spain ended flat. Data from the Office for National Statistics showing the nation's annual headline inflation falling to a 15-month low to 7.9% in June, down from 8.7% in May. Meanwhile, core inflation came in at 6.9%. The drop in inflation has strengthened the case for a quarter point rate hike from the Bank of England rather than an aggressive half a percentage point increase at the August meeting. Meanwhile, final data from Eurostat said the consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 5.5% in June 2023, the lowest level since January 2022. However, the core rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, picked up to 5.5 percent, above a preliminary estimate of 5.4%. Data from European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, or ACEA, showed passenger car sales logged a double-digit growth of 17.8% in June. In the UK market, Hargreaves Lansdown, Persimmon, Land Securities, Segro and Barratt Developments surged 7 to 9%. Taylor Wimpey climbed 6.8%. Unite Group, Berkeley Group Holdings, RightMove, Admiral Group, Scottish Mortgage, Legal & General, M&G, St. James's Place, Schrodders, Natwest Group, United Utilities, Airtel Africa, Burberry Group and Haleon gained 3.5 to 5.3%.

United States

Stocks rose Wednesday, bringing an eighth consecutive day of gains for the Dow, as bank results and easing inflation overseas helped sustain the recent rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 109.28 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 35061.21 for its longest streak of gains since 2019. The broad S&P 500 index climbed 0.2%, led by real-estate and utility shares. The tech-centric Nasdaq added less than 0.1%. A pack of regional banks including U.S. Bancorp, M&T Bank and Citizens Financial Group reported that deposits stabilized in the second quarter after March's string of bank failures. That helped ease investors' concerns that continuing outflows could ripple through the economy and make it harder for businesses and families to get loans. U.S. Bancorp rose 6.5%, M&T added 2.5% and Citizens gained 6.4%. "I'm certainly breathing a sigh of relief that these regional-bank earnings were much more comforting than many people were expecting," said Tim Horan, chief investment officer for fixed income at Chilton Trust. "It paints a picture that goes to the broader health of the economy: to better GDP and a better housing market." Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs shares gained 1% even after the Wall Street heavyweight posted a steep drop in quarterly profit as it worked to exit its disappointing foray into Main Street banking. Some investors saw encouragement in its growing investment-banking backlog.

Asia

Profit-taking in Tokyo after the recent gains there and a wait-and-see attitude in the other places in the region characterize the events on the Asian stock markets and in Sydney on Thursday. The Nikkei index lost 1.0 per cent to 32,571 points. On the neighboring stock exchanges, the changes in the market barometers range from minus 0.3 per cent in Shanghai to plus 0.3 per cent in Hong Kong. The fact that the Chinese central bank has left key interest rates unchanged does not provide any impetus.

Bonds

U.S. Treasury yields, which closely follow interest-rate and inflation expectations, were steady as investors awaited the Fed's policy meeting next week. The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 3.741%, down from with 3.788% on Tuesday. The 2-year yield settled at 4.753%, unchanged from a day earlier.

Analysis

JP Morgan lowers Repsol target to EUR 13 (14) – Underweight

JP Morgan lowers Shell target to 2,750 (2,950) GBp – Overweight

Citi lowers Schaeffler target to EUR 4.90 (5.30) – Sell

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