Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 27.07.2023
Morning news

Holcim delivers excellent performance in H1

Topic of the day

Building materials giant Holcim slowed the pace in the first six months of 2023. However, the outlook for the full year was confirmed on Thursday. The Zug-based group, headed by Jan Jenisch, posted first-half sales down 11% year-on-year at CHF 13.07 billion. However, sales grew by 7.4% on an organic basis, the company explained in a press release. In terms of profitability, recurring operating profit (Ebit) fell by 6% - but rose by 13.4% on an organic basis - to CHF 2.04 billion, while the associated margin increased by 0.8 points to 15.6%. Net profit, group share, reached 1.26 billion, up 9% compared with the first half of 2022. Management confirmed its full-year targets of organic sales growth exceeding 6%, recurring EBIT growth of 10% and a recurring EBIT margin of at least 16%.

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Swiss stocks

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the evening (CEST), the SMI dropped by 0.4 per cent to 11,184 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 14 price losers and six price winners. 16.22 (previously: 18.23) million shares were traded. UBS shares outperformed the market, gaining 0.5 per cent. Participants referred to the strong quarterly results of Deutsche Bank. On Thursday, the quarterly results of Holcim, Roche and Nestle, among others, are on the agenda in Switzerland. While the shares of Holcim and Roche fell along with the overall market by 0.3 and 0.8 per cent respectively, the shares of Nestle climbed by 0.6 per cent.

International markets

Europe

European shares were lower on Wednesday in a cautious opening session, with the Federal Reserve rate decision due later and as a barrage of earnings had investors looking for clues on the health of the economy. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed down 0.5% at 465.5 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 lost 1.4% and 1.2% respectively, hampered in particular by the 5.2% fall in LVMH, the world's leading luxury goods company and the market's biggest capitalisation. The DAX 40 in Frankfurt lost 0.5% and the FTSE 100 in London fell by 0.2%. Luxury goods group LVMH (-5.2%) reported sales slightly below analysts' expectations for the first half of the year. Glass packaging manufacturer Verallia (+7.3%) raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2023 to between €1.1 billion and €1.25 billion. Survey-based research group Ipsos (-7.3%) saw its results fall in the first half of 2023. Digital assistance services provider Solutions 30 (+5.1%) confirmed its outlook for 2023, following double-digit revenue growth in the second quarter. Electronic payments specialist Worldline (+0.3%) reiterated its outlook for 2023. Telecoms operator Orange (-2.1%) maintained its guidance for 2023, including slight like-for-like growth in adjusted EBITDA. Lloyds Banking Group (-1.5% in London), UniCredit (+0.2% in Milan), Deutsche Bank (+1.5% in Frankfurt) and Banco Santander (+4.4% in Madrid) all published their second-quarter results on Wednesday, against a backdrop of sharply rising interest rates in Europe over the past year. On Thursday, it will be BNP Paribas (-0.8%) and Barclays (+0.2% in London) presenting their quarterly results.

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been climbing for 13 straight sessions, eking out a 0.2% increase on Wednesday. The S&P 500 edged less than 0.1% lower, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%. The Federal Reserve resumed lifting interest rates Wednesday with a quarter-percentage-point increase that will bring them to a 22-year high. The unanimous decision to raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% follows a brief pause in increases last month. It marks the 11th rate rise since March 2022, when they lifted rates from near zero. Boeing was the blue-chip index’s best performer, jumping 8.7%, after it said that customers including Air India, Riya Air and Ryanair booked new orders for jets. Industrial conglomerate 3M bagged a 2.6% gain, Home Depot rose 1.4% and Coca-Cola edged 1.3% higher. Snap (-14%), the parent company of the social network Snapchat, presented a lower-than-expected sales forecast for the third quarter on Tuesday evening, after seeing its business decline in the period from April to June for the second consecutive quarter. Microsoft (-3.7%) published higher-than-expected results for the fourth quarter of its financial year on Tuesday evening, but its sales forecast for the current quarter fell short of analysts' estimates. Alphabet (+5.6%), the parent company of Google, announced stronger-than-expected growth in its second-quarter results on Tuesday evening and indicated that its chief financial officer, PacWest Bancorp (+27% to 9.76 dollars), had accepted an all-stock offer from Banc of California (+0.6%), which valued the stock at 9.60 dollars. Microchip maker Texas Instruments (-5.4%) reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, but its sales forecast for the current quarter fell slightly short of analysts' expectations.

Asia

In Asia, major indexes broadly closed with gains on Thursday. In Shanghai, the Composite Index rose by 0.4 per cent and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index gained 1.4 per cent. Automotive stocks are sought after Volkswagen announced a US$700 million investment in electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng. Xpeng shares jump 34 per cent in Hong Kong. BYD improves 3.5 per cent and Great Wall Motor 6.6 per cent. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index climbs 0.8 per cent. On the Seoul Stock Exchange, the Kospi advanced 0.7 per cent. The cosmetics manufacturer Amorepacific achieved a turnaround in earnings, with its shares soaring by around 11 per cent.

Bonds

Yields on two- through 30-year U.S. government debt finished lower on Wednesday even after Federal Reserve policy makers delivered their 11th interest rate increase since March 2022 and laid out the factors that might lead to more hikes. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell by 5 basis points to 3.865%. The 2-year Treasury note yield also declined by 5 basis points to 4.845%.

Analysis

Target price Accelleron: UBS upgrades to CHF 29 (27) - Buy

Target price Idorsia: Jefferies lowers to CHF 6.30 (7.70) - Hold

Target price Sika: UBS raises to CHF 263 (240) - Neutral

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