Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 28.09.2023
Morning news

H&M confirms its margin projection for 2024 after a better-than-expected third quarter

Topic of the day

Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz, or H&M (up 3.4% in Stockholm), confirmed its target of a 10% operating margin for the year ending 30 November 2024, after reporting better-than-expected results for the third quarter. H&M also announced the launch of a SEK 3 billion (€260 million) share buyback programme, which will run until the end of March 2024 at the latest. The group's net profit came to SEK 3.33 billion in the three months to 31 August, compared with SEK 531 million a year earlier. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting a net profit of SEK 3.23 billion. H&M posted an operating profit of SEK 4.74 billion in the third quarter, compared with SEK 902 million in the same period last year. The FactSet consensus was SEK 4.55 billion. H&M's sales, published in mid-September, rose by 6% year-on-year to SEK 60.9 billion in the third quarter. In local currencies, sales were stable. H&M's operating margin reached 7.8% in the third quarter, compared with 1.6% a year earlier.

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Swiss stocks

On Wednesday, the SMI lost 0.7 per cent to 10,882 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 15 price losers and 5 price winners. 26.14 (previously: 20.26) million shares were traded. The SMI was markedly dragged down by Nestle. The share of the index heavyweight fell by 1.8 per cent. UBS was among the companies hit by the downward pressure. According to a report by Bloomberg, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) has opened an investigation. Credit Suisse, which was taken over by UBS, is alleged to have helped Russian clients to circumvent sanctions. It is also investigating whether UBS failed to meet compliance requirements. UBS shares lost 2.9 per cent. Richemont fell 1.4 per cent, while shares of competitor Swatch (+2.0 per cent) recovered. Logitech was the day's winner with a gain of 2.8 per cent to 62.40 francs. The shares of pharmaceutical giant Roche climbed by 1.2 per cent. Meanwhile, shares of competitor Novartis slipped 0.6 per cent. ABB recovered from the previous day's losses and advanced 1.5 per cent.

International markets

Europe

On Wednesday, the European stock markets posted their fifth straight session of negative performance, as bond yields continued to rise on both sides of the Atlantic and investors worried about the impact of persistently high interest rates on the economy. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed down 0.2% at 446.9 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 ended virtually unchanged. The DAX 40 in Frankfurt was down 0.3%, while the FTSE 100 in London gave up 0.4%. Renewable energy producer Voltalia (-15.7%) lowered its EBITDA target for 2023, after seeing its net loss widen in the first half of the year due in particular to disruptions of business in Brazil. Standard & Poor's Global Ratings upgraded the credit rating of energy industry engineering group Technip Energies (+3.7%) from "BBB-" to "BBB", with a stable outlook. Ahead of an investor day, chemicals group Arkema (+3.2%) unveiled its financial targets for 2028, namely sales of around €12 billion and an EBITDA margin of around 18%, compared with 18.3% in 2022. TotalEnergies (+1.7%) has updated its strategy and outlook, indicating plans to increase hydrocarbon production by 2% to 3% per year over the next five years. The group was previously targeting growth of 1.5% a year for the period 2021-2027.

United States

The S&P 500 ended the day higher—just barely. But after the week that stocks just had, even a tiny increase can feel like good news. Stocks have broadly fallen since last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, when central bankers raised their interest-rate forecasts for next year. Investors are also weighing the impact of higher energy prices on inflation, which the Fed’s interest-rate increases this year have sought to tame, and a potential government shutdown. The S&P 500 closed nearly flat. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.2%. Energy stocks supported the indices on Wednesday following a further rise in oil prices. Exxon shares (+3.3%) closed at a new all-time high of $120.20. Warehouse club specialist Costco Wholesale (+1.9%) benefited from a number of target price increases following the publication of a higher-than-expected profit for the fourth quarter of its financial year, despite lower-than-expected sales. Ford lost 0.3% and General Motors gained 0.3% as the UAW strike continued in the US automotive sector. Hotel chain Marriott International (+1.1%) confirmed its forecast for profit growth in 2023 on Wednesday, during the presentation of its strategic plan for the next three years. Organic supermarket chain United Natural Foods (+7%) rebounded from a 22% fall caused by lower-than-expected sales and a net loss in the last quarter. The group also indicated that it expected another difficult financial year in 2023-2024.

Asia

Asian stocks were mixed on Thursday. The Nikkei index in Tokyo slumps by 2 per cent to 31,741 points, in Hong Kong the HSI loses 1.0 per cent. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite, on the other hand, holds its ground. According to traders, the strong decline in Tokyo is also due to the fact that some shares are traded ex-dividend, which has a negative effect on the index calculation. Among others, Softbank Group lost 1.9 per cent, Daiwa Securities 1.8 per cent and Astellas Pharma 3.9 per cent. Meanwhile, the highly indebted real estate giant China Evergrande is once again the centre of attention in Hong Kong. Its shares were once again suspended from trading, a month after trading resumed following a 17-month trading halt. Real estate stocks such as Country Garden (-3.3%) or Longfor (-2.7%) continue to decline amid turmoil. The share of CIFI Holdings, a holding company heavily invested in the real estate sector, is heading south by another 10 per cent in the wake of its 60 per cent plunge on Wednesday.

Bonds

More U.S. Treasury yields headed toward or further above the 5% mark as a selloff in government debt resumed on Wednesday, pushing 10- and 30-year rates to fresh multiyear highs. The 10-year Treasury note yield gained further ground, rising by almost 5 basis points to 4.612%. The 2-year Treasury note yield rose by 6 basis points to 5.137%.

Analysis

Target price Glencore: Jefferies raises to GBP 5.60 (5.50) - Buy

Rating Kühne+Nagel: JPM lowers to Underweight (Neutral) - Target 230 (237) CHF

Target price Givaudan: JPMorgan lowers to CHF 2950 (3100) - Neutral

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