By Swissquote Analysts
U.S. Retail Sales Rise on Black Friday
Topic of the day
Retail sales in the U.S. rose 2.5 percent year-over-year on Black Friday. The main contributors were an increase in jewelry and apparel purchases, as well as spending at sporting events and restaurants. This is shown by data from Mastercard Spendingpulse, an economic barometer that measures sales in stores and online. Spending increased both in online retail and in stores. US retail footfall was up 2.1% year-on-year on the Friday after Thanksgiving, with health and beauty brands recording double-digit year-on-year growth, according to Retailnext, a provider of in-store traffic analysis.
Swiss stocks
The benchmark SMI ended up 27.90 points or 0.26% at 10,879.52, the day's high. The index moved in a very tight range between 10,840.90 and 10,879.52. Kuehne & Nagel climbed about 1.3%. Swiss Life Holding gained 1.04%, Givaudan ended 0.9% up, and ABB gained 0.71%. Swiss Re, Novartis, Partners Group, Sonova and Zurich Insurance Group gained 0.4 to 0.7%, while UBS Group ended 0.34% up. Richemont ended down 1.28%. Logitech International drifted down 0.56%, and Lonza Group ended 0.34% down. Clariant, Helvetia, VAT Group, AMS Osram AG, Meyer Burger Tech and Ems Chemie Holding gained 1 to 1.5%. Georg Fischer and Baloise Holding both ended nearly 1% up. SIG Combibloc ended lower by 1.06%. Julius Baer lost nearly 1%, while Temenos Group and Swatch Group ended down 0.74% and 0.68%, respectively. Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Switzerland's non-farm payrolls increased 1.9% year-on-year to a record 5.465 million in the third quarter of 2023, following a 2.2% growth in the previous quarter.
International markets
Europe
European markets ended mostly higher on Friday with stocks gaining in strength in afternoon trades with investors digesting corporate earnings and continuing to assess the likely interest-rate path of major central bankers. The rise in bond yields and concerns about economic slowdown limited markets' upside. The euro strengthened and regional bond yields edged higher after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the European Central Bank must resist any temptation to cut interest rates early. Nagel also said he was 'skeptical' about the risk of a 'hard landing' for the euro zone economy caused by the monetary policy squeeze. Elsewhere, Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill told the Financial Times that it was too early to declare victory in the battle against high inflation. The pan European Stoxx 600 ended up 0.33%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 edged up 0.06%, Germany's DAX gained 0.22%, and France's CAC 40 advanced 0.2%. Switzerland's SMI climbed 0.26%. Among other markets in Europe, Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain and Turikye closed higher. Austria, Finland, Poland and Sweden edged up marginally, while Greece and Russia ended weak. In the UK market, Kingfisher, Tesco, Hargreaves Lansdown, Vodafone and 3i gained 1 to 2%. Barclays Group gained more than 1% after reports that the lender is mulling cutting around 2,000 jobs as part of plans to cut costs by as much as £1 billion ($1.3 billion) over several years. Intertek, SSE, United Utilities and Barratt Developments ended higher by 0.7 t0 1%.
United States
Stocks solidified a fourth consecutive week of gains, after bouncing between small gains and losses Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%, or 117 points. Friday's trading session was shorter than usual due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with relatively light trading volume. All three major indexes are on pace for their best monthly performance in more than a year. Stocks sold off from late July through October as fears built that the Federal Reserve's campaign to fight inflation would leave interest rates higher for longer than investors hope. But optimism has lately built that the central bank won't raise rates further, and will even start to lower them in 2024. Traders in interest-rate derivatives are pricing in a nearly 23% chance that the Fed will cut short-term rates at its March policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. "Investors are definitely expecting rate cuts next year," said Julie Biel, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at Kayne Anderson Rudnick. "My hope is that's the case, but the Fed will want to feel very confident that inflation can get to 2% and stay there." A survey of purchasing managers from S&P Global released on Friday found that businesses cut jobs in November because of softer demand and cost pressures, the latest sign that the economy is cooling. Recent government data showing slowing job growth and easing inflation has built hopes that the Fed can bring inflation to heel without causing a recession. Healthcare was the S&P 500's top-performing sector on Friday, advancing 0.5%. Communications services fell 0.7%, marking the day's biggest laggard. The top stock in the index was fertilizer maker CF Industries, which rose 2.6%. First Solar was the weakest performer on the day, dropping 3.3%.
Asia
The East Asian stock markets started the week with losses. While the stock exchanges in Tokyo and Seoul turned negative after initial slight gains, the Chinese stock exchanges once again fell more sharply. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.7 per cent and the Hang Seng Index lost 0.8 per cent. Investors were waiting for clear statements regarding support for the ailing property sector, according to reports.
Bonds
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged higher as bond prices fell. It settled Friday at 4.483%, snapping a run of five straight daily declines.
Analysis
UBS lowers MFE target to EUR 3.50 (4) – Neutral
HSBC lowers Fresenius target to EUR 31 (33) – Hold
Deutsche Bank lowers Reckitt target to 6,000 (6,200) p – Hold
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