Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 30.11.2023
Morning news

U.S. Economic Growth Slowed This Fall, Fed's Beige Book Finds

Topic of the day

U.S. economic growth slowed this fall, with business activity advancing tepidly or declining throughout the country, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a regular survey of businesses. Consumer activity was mixed, with most of the cooling coming from declines in purchases of durable goods and increased price sensitivity. The U.S. Federal Reserve prepares the next meeting with the Beige Book. It is a summary of comments from the twelve regional central banks in the USA, which report on the current economic situation in their respective regions. The next central bank meeting will take place on December 12 and 13.

Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market resumed its upward march on Wednesday, ending on a positive note after two sessions of declines. The SMI climbed back above the 10,800-point mark, finishing just above that level. The corporate news front remained calm. The SMI ended up 0.39% at 10,802.88 points, with a high of 10,835.48 points and a low of 10,761.64 points at the start of the session. The SLI gained 0.63% to 1709.77 points and the SPI 0.51% to 14,177.30 points. Of the 30 leading stocks, 23 rose and seven fell. Swiss Re and Novartis (both -0.5%) shared the bottom spot, behind Julius Bär, SGS, Swisscom and Nestlé (all -0.3%). Sandoz (-0.2%) also lost ground. Roche (good +0.2%, porter +0.7%) gained ground. The day's podium was made up of VAT Group (+4.4%), UBS (+3.0%) and Sonova (+2.3%). Also in demand, Richemont (+0.9%) has no plans to lend to or invest in online retailer Farfetch, which is currently facing financial difficulties. "Richemont would like to remind its shareholders that the group has no financial obligations towards Farfetch," stressed the Geneva-based company in a press release. Richemont's Biel-based rival Swatch (+1.5%) was also favoured by the stock market.

International markets

Europe

European stocks moved mostly higher during trading on Wednesday, with dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday raising optimism that the U.S. central bank is done raising interest rates. Data showing a slowdown in German inflation also contributed to the positive mood in the markets. The pan European STOXX 600 climbed by 0.5 percent to 459.10. The German DAX Index jumped by 1.1 percent and the French CAC 40 Index edged up by 0.2 percent, although the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index bucked the uptrend and fell by 0.4 percent. On the economic front, data published by the statistical office INSEE showed French payroll employment increased slightly in the third quarter, rising just 0.1%, or 36,700. The rate was 0.1% in the second quarter. Nonetheless, payroll employment exceeded the previous year level by 0.8%. Private as well as public payroll employment gained 0.1% each in the third quarter.German import prices continued to fall in October, but the large decreases primarily reflect higher base of comparison, Destatis reported today. Import prices posted an annual fall of 13% in October after a 14.3% decrease in September. Prices have been falling since March. 'The large decreases are still primarily due to a base effect originating from the high price increases in 2022 as a result of the war in Ukraine,' Destatis said.

United States

Stocks wavered Wednesday, dampening a November rally that has sent the S&P 500 toward its best month since July 2022. The S&P 500 edged lower 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13 points, or less than 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%. Investors have been reassured in recent weeks by inflation and economic data suggesting the Federal Reserve can pull off a soft landing, or a cooling of the economy that doesn’t tip it into a recession. Another morsel of good economic news arrived Wednesday, when data showed the economy grew at a 5.2% annual rate last quarter, the fastest pace since late 2021. Still, economists expect growth to slow in the fourth quarter as consumers pull back on spending. Some investors said that stocks were due for a breather after a blockbuster stretch. The S&P 500 is up around 8% this month. Hopes that the Fed will slash interest rates next year - in part because of easing inflation and a slowing economy - have rippled through markets, driving rallies in stocks, bonds and gold while hurting the U.S. dollar. The stock-market rally has petered out in recent days. Futures for gold rose for a fourth consecutive session to $2,047.10 a troy ounce, the highest level since May and within striking distance of its record hit in August 2020. Gold doesn’t pay any income, so speculative demand for the metal tends to wane when yields on other assets are rising. Demand picks up when yields fall. In corporate news, shares of General Motors jumped 9.4% after the company said it would increase cash to shareholders and outlined plans for a $10 billion share repurchase for next year. Ford shares added 2.1%.

Asia

The East Asian stock markets showed a mixed trend on Thursday. The eagerly awaited purchasing managers' indices from China fell for the second month in a row. While the index for the manufacturing sector remains below the expansion threshold of 50, the index for the service sector just managed to maintain this level. The stock markets initially reacted to the data with losses, but were subsequently able to recover. This is supported by the hope that the Chinese government will adopt further measures to stimulate the economy. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.1 per cent, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong remained virtually unchanged.

Bonds

The yield on the 10-year U.S Treasury note fell for the third consecutive day and closed at 4.27%, its lowest level since September. It is a rapid plunge from just around a month ago, when government bond yields touched 5% for the first time in 16 years.

Analysis

JP Morgan lowers Unilever target to EUR 41 (45) – Underweight
JP Morgan lowers Reckitt-Benckiser target to 7,000 (7,500) p – Overweight
Bank of America increases RWE target to 51 (47) EUR – Buy

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