Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 05.12.2023
Morning news

Roche enters into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Carmot Therapeutics

Topic of the day

On Monday, sentiment of the Swiss stock market was driven primarily by the marked premium for Roche shares, advancing by 2.8 per cent. The pharmaceutical group is buying Carmot Therapeutics in the USA for up to 3.1 billion dollars. "The price seems customary in the industry and the industrial rationale is right," a trader commented. Roche is thus buying access to the current fashionable topic of combating obesity. Carmot's research and development portfolio includes drug candidates for the treatment of obesity in patients with and without diabetes. Roche will initially pay 2.7 billion dollars in cash. If certain milestones are reached, a further amount of up to 400 million dollars will become due. Upon closing of the transaction, which is expected in the first quarter of 2024, Roche will gain access to Carmot's current research and development portfolio. The employees will become part of the Swiss company's pharmaceutical division.

Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market ended trading on Monday with a gain, continuing the positive trend from the end of the week. The SMI rose by 0.6 per cent to 10,952 points, closing just below its high for the day. Of the 20 SMI stocks, there were 13 losers and 7 winners. A total of 18.88 (previously: 25.11) million shares were traded. Among the individual stocks, Swiss Life shares fell by 0.8 per cent. The insurer announced that CEO Patrick Frost has decided to step down at the Annual General Meeting on 15 May 2024. His successor will be Matthias Aellig, the current Chief Financial Officer. Dirk von der Crone will also succeed Jörg Arnold as head of the German business on 1 July. The latter is relinquishing the post at his own request. Kuehne + Nagel's share price fell by 0.3 per cent. The analysts at Deutsche Bank have lowered the target price to CHF 290 from CHF 315, while confirming their buy recommendation.

International markets

Europe

The European stock markets closed lower on Monday, with investors taking a breather after a month of rebounding indices and ahead of several major indicators this week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index shed 0.1% to 465.8 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 lost 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. In London, the FTSE shed 0.2%, while the DAX 40 finished virtually unchanged. Elior gained 3.8% to €2.42, while TP ICAP Midcap raised its target price for the stock from €2.50 to €3 and maintained its "buy" recommendation. Technology and defence group Thales (-1.8%) completed its acquisition of 100% of the capital of US cybersecurity company Imperva from investment firm Thoma Bravo a little ahead of schedule. Back in July, Thales planned to complete the approximately €3.3 billion takeover by early 2024. The media share index rose by 0.7%. Wolters Kluwer (+2%) was a major contributor. The share will join the Euro-Stoxx-50 European flagship index on 18 December. Flutter (-1.4% in London), on the other hand, has to leave the index, as the entertainment company intends transferring the main listing of its shares to the New York Stock Exchange.

United States

Stocks, bonds and precious metals retreated Monday, reversing course after markets last week extended a monthlong stretch of gains. Higher bond yields weighed on shares of large technology companies, pressuring the broader stock market. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%, and the benchmark S&P 500 dropped 0.5%. The Dow industrials slipped 0.1%, or 41 points, snapping a four-day win streak. Shares of Nvidia, the darling of the artificial-intelligence boom, fell 2.7% Monday as chip stocks declined. Microsoft shares slid 1.4%. Amazon.com declined 1.5%. Despite Monday’s drawdown, signs of investor optimism remained. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks defied the rest of the market, finishing Monday 1% higher. Bitcoin climbed above $42,000 in Monday trading, marking the highest level the cryptocurrency has seen since April 2022, around when the Fed kicked off its policy-tightening campaign. The rise has been aided by the possibility that an exchange-traded fund tied to spot bitcoin will win approval soon. In corporate news, Uber Technologies shares rose 2.2% after S&P Global said the ride-hailing company will join the S&P 500 index. Investors are piling in ahead of the move, which typically draws buying from funds that track the benchmark. Spotify Technology shares jumped 7.5% after the streaming company announced its third round of layoffs this year. Alaska Air shares fell 14% after the carrier agreed to buy Hawaiian Airlines. Hawaiian’s shares surged nearly threefold on Monday to their highest close in more than a year. Five9's share price has jumped by 7.4%. According to press reports, the call centre software publisher is considering a takeover, more than two years after its failed acquisition by video conferencing specialist Zoom Video. The company is in talks with its banks to approach potential buyers, including Zoom, according to Bloomberg, citing sources close to the matter. Music streaming platform Spotify (up 7.5%) announced on Monday plans to make 17% of its workforce redundant in order to cut costs amid the economic slowdown. This is the third wave of job cuts at Spotify this year.

Asia

Stocks in Asia mostly fell on Tuesday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index lost 1.2 per cent to 32,835 points. Chinese stock exchanges fell by 0.7 per cent in Shanghai and by as much as 1.8 per cent in Hong Kong. The index in Seoul held up best with a drop of 0.2 per cent. Among the individual stocks in Hong Kong, Wuxi Biologics continued to plummet by 11 per cent after plunging 23 per cent and the subsequent price suspension the previous day. The company had lowered its forecasts.

Bonds

U.S. Treasuries sold off on Monday, pushing yields higher for the second time in three sessions, as investors weighed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent efforts to damp rate-cut expectations. The 10-year Treasury note yield recovered 5 basis points on Monday to 4.253%. The 2-year Treasury note yield climbed by 8 basis points to 4.629%.

Analysis

Rating Swisscom: JP Morgan downgrades to Underweight (Neutral) - Target CHF 508 (660)
Target price Phoenix Mecano: UBS raises to CHF 370 (360) - Sell
Rating Glencore: Barclays resumes with Equal Weight - Target GBP 4.75

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