Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 14.12.2023
Morning news

Inditex Lifts Profitability Outlook After Strong Earnings Growth

Topic of the day

The owner of Zara clothing stores lifted its outlook for profitability after earnings increased in the first nine months, though sales growth has slowed in the most recent quarter. Inditex said on Wednesday that net profit in the nine months ended Oct. 31 jumped 32.5% to 4.10 billion euros ($4.43 billion) from EUR3.1 billion in the same period last year. It now expects its gross margin to rise by 75 basis points from last year, up from a previous forecast of a stable gross margin plus or minus 50 basis points. Sales rose 11% to EUR25.6 billion for the nine-month period, implying third-quarter sales of around EUR8.76 billion. Analysts had expected quarterly sales of EUR8.88 billion, according to a consensus forecast from FactSet. At constant currencies, nine-month sales grew 15%, which compares to growth of 20% in the year-earlier period. Analysts have expressed concerns about the effect of damped consumer spending over the past weeks, while Bernstein analysts blamed the slowdown on unfavorable weather in the quarter, which delayed sales of the autumn/winter season.

Swiss stocks

The Switzerland stock market ended modestly higher on Wednesday after a cautious session ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. Policy announcements from the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Norges Bank are due later in the week. The benchmark SMI ended with a gain of 37.69 points or 0.34% at 11,188.91. The index, which touched a low of 11,153.77 in early trades, advanced to 11,255.50 about an hour past noon. Sonova climbed 2.25%. Alcon gained nearly 2%. Sika and Richemont ended higher by 1.61% and 1.44%, respectively. Partners Group, Kuehne & Nagel, Novartis, Swiss Life Holding and Logitech International advanced 0.87 to 1%. Nestle, Roche Holding and Lonza Group lost 0.52%, 0.41% and 0.37%, respectively. Swisscom edged down 0.16%. In the Mid Price Index, Ems Chemie Holding, Straumann Holding, BKW and Sandoz gained 1.4 to 2.3%. Swiss Prime Site, VAT Group, Belimo Holding and Schindler Ps ended higher by 0.8 to 1.1%. Meyer Burger Tech tanked 14.4%, extending recent losses. ams OSRAM AG ended 2.8% down. Avolta and Tecan Group closed lower by 2% and 1.3%, respectively. On the economic front, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said the Swiss economy is set to register well below average growth in 2024 as the weaker momentum in the euro area hurts Swiss exports and higher financing cost curbs investment.

International markets

Europe

European stocks ended mixed on Wednesday with investors largely making cautious moves, digesting regional economic data, and looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. The pan European Stoxx 600 edged down 0.06%. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 ended down 0.15% and 0.16%, respectively. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 crept up 0.08% and Switzerland's SMI climbed 0.34%. Among other markets in Europe, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Spain, Sweden and Turkiye closed weak. Denmark, Greece, Iceland, Poland, Portugal and Russia ended higher, while Austria, Czech Republic, Netherlands and Norway closed flat. In the UK market, RightMove dropped about 4.7%. TUI eased nearly 3% and Vodafone Group ended down 2.4%. Just Eat Takeaway.com, Auto Trader Group,WPP, Prudential, IHG, JD Sports Fashion Group, IAG and Legal & General lost 1 to 2%. Entain rallied 5.3% on news the company's chief executive Jette Nygaard-Andersen is stepping down with immediate effect after coming under fire from investors for a languishing share price and a series of costly acquisitions. AstraZeneca drifted down 2.5%. Segro, Land Securities, Antofagasta, British Land Company, Rentokil Initial, Fresnillo, BAE Systems, Melrose Industries, Centrica, Pennon, CRH, Compass Group, Croda International and Hiscox gained 1 to 2%.

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average became the first major U.S. stock index to set a record since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. Investors on Wednesday drove the blue-chip index up 512.30 points to 37090.24, after Federal Reserve officials penciled in three interest-rate cuts next year at the conclusion of their December meeting. The benchmark topped its previous closing high of 36799.65 set on Jan. 4, 2022. The 30-stock index has risen for six consecutive weeks and is up 12% this year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are dominated by tech and other growth shares that are valued based on their prospects for growth. When interest rates were near zero, investors chased their returns, but when rates started rising, those shares suddenly faced competition from other less-risky investments. Yields on money-market funds, for instance, topped 5% this year, drawing record assets. Since the benchmark’s last record in early 2022, UnitedHealth has made the biggest positive contribution, adding more than 380 points. The health insurer has seen higher investment income help offset rising medical costs. It even stands to benefit from the Ozempic craze, some analysts say, in part because of its tough approach on both pricing as well as on just who gets to take the new class of weight-loss drugs. Shares are up 3.6% this year, hovering near record levels. Home Depot, 3M and Walt Disney have been the biggest drags since January 2022, together subtracting more than 1350 points, while Chevron and Walgreens Boots Alliance have had the largest negative impact since March.

Asia

The dovish performance of the US Federal Reserve provides a boost on the East Asian stock exchanges and in Sydney on Thursday. In Hong Kong, Seoul and Sydney, the indices rose by 1.0 to 1.7 per cent. In Shanghai, the increase was only small at 0.1 per cent. Tokyo is an exception. The Nikkei index lost 0.7 per cent to 32,691 points.

Bonds

Yields on US Treasury bonds continued to fall on Thursday morning following announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At around 7:30 a.m., the yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury note was down 5.8 basis points at 3.967%. It had not fallen below 4% since the summer, and even approached 5% in October.

Analysis

SoGen lowers the Hugo Boss target to 67 (68) EUR/Hold – Trader
JPM lowers the RTL target to 37 (47) EUR/Neutral – Trader
Citi raises the Nemetschek target to 92 (80) EUR/Buy – Trader

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