Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 03.01.2024
Morning news

ASML Hit by Block on Chinese Exports

Topic of the day

ASML Holding is facing more restrictions on Chinese exports. it’s a sign that U.S.-led efforts to freeze out China from global chip-supply chains are bearing fruit. Netherlands-based ASML has a dominant position in making the lithography machines that are vital for producing semiconductors. The company said Monday that the Dutch government recently partially revoked an export license for shipping NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography systems to China, affecting a small number of customers. Exports of some advanced types of chip-making equipment abroad have been subject to permission from the Dutch government since September. Such controls were introduced after the Netherlands, Japan, and the U.S. reached an agreement to start restricting exports of chip-making equipment in an effort to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductor technologies. “We do not expect the current revocation of our export license or the latest U.S. export control restrictions to have a material impact on our financial outlook for 2023,” ASML said in a statement.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market on Friday snapped the two-day slide in which it had fallen almost 100 points or 0.9 percent. The SMI posted its best annual gain since 2021 on hopes that global central banks led by the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next year. Regional volumes remained light on the last trading day of the year, with investors securing a bit of window dressing ahead of the New Year holiday. For the day, the index improved 80.24 points or 0.73 percent to finish at 11,137.79 after trading between 11,085.70 and 11,143.59. Among the actives, Swiss Life climbed 1.14 percent, while Novartis advanced 0.99 percent, Zurich Insurance gained 0.87 percent, Swisscom added 0,68 percent, UBS Group collected 0.62 percent, Swatch Group rose 0.35 percent and Adecco Group dipped 0.05 percent. In economic news, Switzerland's leading index rose to an eight-month high in December, the results of a survey by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute showed Friday. The KOF economic barometer advanced to 97.8 in December from revised 97.2 in November. This was the highest reading since April and also stayed above economists' forecast of 97.0. The increase was primarily attributable to bundles of indicators in the manufacturing sector and indicators for private consumption.

International markets

Europe

The major European markets were unable to hold onto early gains on Tuesday, giving ground as the day progressed to finish mixed and fairly flat. The early support for the markets followed the release of mixed Chinese manufacturing data, but the markets ran out of momentum and were weighed by weakness from the technology sectors. For the day, Germany's DAX picked up 17.72 points or 0.11 percent to finish at 16,769.36, while London's FTSE dipped 11.72 points or 0.15 percent to close at 7,721.52 and the CAC 40 in France fell 12.32 points or 0.16 percent to end at 7,530.86. In Germany, Fresenius surged 3.38 percent, while Zalando tumbled 2.28 percent, Bayer rallied 2.07 percent, Infineon Technologies slumped 1.96 percent, Vonovia retreated 1.72 percent, Deutsche Telekom advanced 0.99 percent, Volkswagen improved 0.97 percent, Siemens Energy lost 0.96 percent, Deutsche Bank collected 0.95 percent and Deutsche Post rose 0.11 percent. In London, St. James Place plunged 3.63 percent, while Prudential tanked 3.49 percent, Rightmove tumbled 3.20 percent, Auto Trader declined 2.55 percent, Scottish Mortgage skidded 2.48 percent, Rentokil sank 1.88 percent, Vodafone jumped 1.75 percent, British American Tobacco climbed 1.57 percent, Tesco added 0.90 percent, Haleon gained 0.79 percent and Rolls-Royce fell 0.53 percent. In France, Pernod Ricard tumbled 2.63 percent, while Societe Generale spiked 2.46 percent, Orange advanced 1.82 percent, Credit Agricole rallied 1.65 percent, Sanofi gained 1.26 percent, BNP Paribas collected 1.23 percent, Veolia sank 0.56 percent and Engie improved 0.20 percent. In economic news, British manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace in December as output fell sharply amid weaker demand conditions both domestically and internationally, survey results from S&P Global revealed Tuesday.

United States

Tumbling technology stocks cast a pall over a trading day in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at a new all-time high, showing how much sway a few giant technology firms have over the broader market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.6%, dragged down by the same big names, including Apple and Nvidia, that propelled it 43% higher last year. A good day for energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer-staples stocks couldn’t offset the pull from technology and telecom shares in the S&P 500, which shed 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has risen for nine consecutive weeks, eked out a 0.07% gain, or 25.5 points, to close at a new record of 37715.04. There is growing doubt that the big tech stocks that powered last year’s rally can keep rising. The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks swelled last year to represent about 30% of the S&P 500’s market value and were responsible for much of the index’s 24% gain. Minus Apple, Amazon.com, Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Facebook owner Meta Platforms and Tesla, the S&P 500 rose 13% last year. Amazon.com, Alphabet and Microsoft each lost more than 1%. Chip maker Nvidia and Meta dropped more than 2%. Tesla lost less than 0.1% after the electric-car maker said it delivered 1.81 million vehicles last year. Tesla met its own 2023 production target and topped Wall Street’s estimate yet fell behind China’s BYD as the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles. Moderna was the S&P 500’s top performer Tuesday. The drugmaker’s shares popped 13% after Oppenheimer analysts upgraded the stock and Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel wrote in a letter to shareholders that it expects sales growth in 2025.

Asia

The East Asian stock markets followed Wall Street's weak lead on Wednesday. Sydney (-1.4%), where trading has already ended, also fell sharply.

Bonds

Rising U.S. bond yields contributed to the selloff in tech stocks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ended Tuesday at 3.944%, up from 3.860% on Friday. Yields rise as prices fall.

Analysis

Citi raises Easyjet to Neutral (Sell) – 560 (450) GBp

Citi downgrades Lufthansa to Sell (Neutral) – EUR 6.60 (7.90)

HAIB raises Kion to EUR 62 (59) – Buy

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