Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 16.01.2024
Morning news

Lindt & Sprüngli Once Again Reports Double-Digit Organic Growth

Topic of the day

Chocolate manufacturer Lindt & Sprüngli kept up the pace last year, despite a difficult economic climate marked by soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions and succeeded in improving its sales. The group based on the shores of Lake Zurich is also counting on continued growth in 2024. Over the last 12 months, the Kilchberg-based company recorded revenues up by 4.6% to CHF 5.2 billion. Organic growth amounted to 10.3%, after 10.8% in 2022, the company stated in a press release on Tuesday. Currency effects weighed down sales by 4.4%, while the Group recorded solid growth in Europe (+9.1%), North America (+11%) and the other regions of the world (+12.9%). For 2024, the chocolate manufacturer expects organic growth of between 6% and 8%, as well as an improved operating margin of 20 to 40 basis points. Detailed results will be announced on March 5th.

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Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market ended trading on Monday with small losses. The SMI dropped 0.2 per cent to 11,208 points. Of the 20 SMI stocks, there were 14 losers and six gainers. A total of 9.83 (previously: 16.3) million shares were traded. Market participants reported a lack of momentum in trading, especially as the US stock exchanges were closed at the beginning of the week due to the Martin Luther King Day holiday. The focus is now shifting to the current earnings season. On Monday, investors tended to sell cyclical stocks. ABB, Geberit and Sika fell between 0.3 and 0.6 per cent. At Kühne + Nagel (-0.8%), investors are likely to have taken profits given the logistics company's shares benefited from the crisis in the Red Sea. Partners Group fell by a further 1.6 per cent after the asset manager's shares were hit by disappointing business performance figures on Friday. Defensive heavyweight Nestle (-0.5%) was also sold off. The shares of pharmaceutical giants Novartis (+0.6%) and Roche (-0.7%) recorded a mixed performance. Insurers Swiss Life, Swiss Re and Zurich posted gains of up to 1.1 per cent. Swiss SoftwareOne Holding rejected the takeover bid from financial investor Bain with a valuation of just under CHF 3 billion. The share lost 8.4 per cent. On the stock exchange, the deal was only given a small chance of success anyway, as the shares of the software and cloud company recently traded markedly below the bid. The valuation of CHF 18.80 per share did not reflect the value of SoftwareOne, the company stated. Baader analyst Knut Woller interprets the rejection as good news. Now that the 2023 targets have been confirmed, he is eagerly awaiting the Capital Markets Day on 15 February, at which the medium-term targets are to be presented. In view of the solid cash generation, higher dividends and/or buybacks are a possible option.

International markets

Europe

The European stock markets closed lower on Monday. The Stoxx Europe 600 index shed 0.5% to 474.2 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 were each down 0.7%. The DAX 40 in Frankfurt lost 0.5% and the FTSE 100 in London dropped 0.4%. Atos (-15.1%) announced a further management reshuffle on Monday, with the appointment of its CFO, Paul Saleh, as CEO with immediate effect. Dassault Aviation (-6.4%) reported disappointing deliveries and orders for 2023 for both Falcon business jets and the Rafale fighter jet. Digital assistance services provider Solutions 30 (+1.9%) has entered into a partnership with Unsere Grüne Glasfaser (UGG), a joint venture between Allianz and Telefonica specialising in telecoms networks, to roll out a fibre-to-the-home network in Germany. Deutsche Bank fell by 0.9% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The German bank is considering acquiring European banks, in particular its compatriot Commerzbank (+0.8%) and ABN Amro (+1.1% in Amsterdam), according to the Bloomberg press agency, quoting anonymous sources. Deutsche Bank has not yet established contact with these potential targets, the agency added.

United States

U.S. equity and bond markets were shut for Martin Luther King Day.

Asia

The Asian markets are heading south across the board in late trading on Tuesday. The HSI in Hong Kong is facing its worst day in two months. The Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai (-0.6%) and especially Hong Kong (-1.8%) lead the list of underperformers. The property index lost 3.2 per cent, Longfor fell by 7.1 per cent, Yuexiu Property by 6.6 per cent and Country Garden Holdings and Country Garden Services by 5.6 and 5 per cent respectively. In Tokyo, the Nikkei-225 dropped by 0.7 per cent to 35,648 points, although the strong dollar depressed the yen, which usually supports the Japanese stock market. This reflects the poor market sentiment, according to commentators. The South Korean Kospi shed 1 per cent - underpinned by thin trading volumes. Orion slumps by 13 per cent, the food company plans to take over a loss-making biotechnology start-up.

Bonds

The Swiss bond market remained narrowly stable on Monday. Swap rates were slightly above Friday's level and prices were therefore slightly lower, according to the market. Turnover was moderate at the start of the week. According to traders, the underwriting business is gaining momentum. "Many issuers are looking at the market and also wish to offer investors something," commented one trader. Cembra Money Bank, for example, is raising CHF 250 million for 6 years. The books were well filled in view of a spread of +105 basis points, according to one trader. The spread is appealing and includes an attractive new issue premium. In addition, Korea Housing, Volkswagen and Bobst Banks have given mandates for investor presentations, which could be followed by the issue of a bond in the coming days. Korea Housing is planning a tranche with a term of two years. VW intends to issue a three-year and a six-year bond in "green format". Bobst envisages bonds with a medium-term maturity. In addition, the canton of Ticino also aims to issue one or even two bonds in the coming days. The yield of two-year Swiss Confederation bonds has meanwhile been quoted at 1.045 per cent and that of ten-year bonds at 0.797 per cent.

Analysis

Price target Partners Group: Citigroup lowers to CHF 1350 (1370) - Buy
Rating VAT: RBC downgrades to Underperform (Sector Perform) - Target 280 (290) CHF
Price target Logitech: Goldman Sachs raises to 89 (87) CHF - Buy

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