Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 22.01.2024
Morning news

BASF Sales, Earnings Miss Forecasts on Lower Margins, Write-Downs

Topic of the day

BASF said Friday that its 2023 results missed expectations, dragged by impairments and lower margins that weren’t offset by cost cuts. The German chemicals giant’s key profit figure - earnings before interest, taxes and special items - fell to 3.81 billion euros ($4.14 billion) from EUR6.88 billion, compared with a EUR4 billion-EUR4.4 billion forecast range and an analyst consensus estimate of EUR3.93 billion. Net profit was EUR225 million, far below analysts’ expectations of EUR2.25 billion, in part due to impairments of EUR1.1 billion related to its surface technologies, agricultural and materials segments. In 2022 BASF had a loss of EUR627 million. BASF’s update illustrates the challenges that incoming Chief Executive Markus Kamieth faces. He is set to succeed Martin Brudermueller from April. Like many of its peers, BASF had to navigate a tough environment last year, with weaker demand amid slowing global economic growth and high energy prices. In December, BASF announced an overhaul aimed at lifting profitability at its battery-materials and agricultural units. It has also agreed to sell assets of its shareholding in oil-and-gas producer Wintershall Dea, to the London-based energy company Harbour Energy. However, the German government is reviewing the deal to ensure it doesn’t compromise national security.

Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market ended on a weak note on Friday after a lackluster session. The mood was cautious amid uncertainty about the outlook for central banks' interest rate moves. The benchmark SMI, which climbed to 11,253.56 in early trades, ended the session with a loss of 35.36 points or 0.32% at 11,150.52. ABB ended down 3.6%. Kuehne & Nagel settled lower by about 2.2%, UBS Group ended nearly 2% down, and Sonova drifted down by about 1%. Roche Holding, Lonza Group and Holcim also closed weak. Zurich Insurance Group, Swisscom, Swiss Re and Novartis gained 0.7 to 1%. Logitech International ended higher by about 0.6%. In the Mid Price Index, Sandoz settled with a loss of about 3%. Tecan Group ended down 1.55%, while Schindler Ps, Belimo Holding, Schindler Holding, Swatch Group and Georg Fischer lost 0.7 to 1.1%. Meyer Burger Tech climbed more than 3.5%. ams OSRAM AG surged 3.25% and Temenos Group advanced 2.6%. Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Switzerland's producer and import prices declined for the eighth successive month in December, dropping 1.1% year-on-year in December, following a 1.3% fall in the previous month. The producer price index climbed 0.5% annually in December, while import prices registered a notable decrease of 4.4%.

International markets

Europe

European stocks closed on a weak note on Friday after a cautious session as weak economic data from the U.K. and Germany and uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates rendered the mood cautious. Investors closely followed the Davos summit, in addition to digesting the latest batch of economic data from Europe and the U.S. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said at the World Economic Forum today that inflation is coming down in the Eurozone and worldwide, and that there are signs the job market is loosening. Lagarde however refrained from commenting on monetary policy during her commentary on the economic outlook. The pan European Stoxx 600 ended down 0.26%. Germany's DAX edged down 0.07%, France's CAC 40 drifted down 0.4%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 crept up 0.04%, while Switzerland's SMI ended 0.05% down. Among other markets in Europe, Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden and Turkiye ended weak. Belgium, Iceland, Norway and Poland closed higher, while Austria, Greece and Netherlands ended flat. In the UK market, Ocado Group ended nearly 4% down. Entain settled with a loss of about 2.7%, while Whitbread, Marks & Spencer and Glencore lost 1.8 to 2.1%.

United States

A rally in technology stocks propelled the S&P 500 to an all-time high Friday. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 4839.81, breaking a streak of more than 500 trading sessions without a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 395 points, or 1.1%, to close at 37863.80, also a record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.7%. Shares of tech companies led the charge higher. An upbeat earnings report this week from chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company spurred a resurgence in semiconductor stocks like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom. The PHLX Semiconductor Index gained 4%. Shares of Apple, which uses TSMC chips, rose 1.6%. U.S. stocks stumbled at the beginning of this year after the S&P 500's 24% gain in 2023. Investor optimism about how quickly the Federal Reserve might pivot to cutting interest rates has waned. Traders are pricing in a roughly 46% probability that the Fed will reduce rates at its March policy meeting, down from 68% one month ago, according to federal-funds futures. Several companies released earnings reports this week. Results from regional banks in recent days showed steep declines in quarterly earnings. Still, shares of Huntington Bancshares, Regions Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp all rose about 3% or more Friday after the lenders released results. Shares of Travelers jumped 6.7% after the insurance giant reported higher revenue and income last quarter, helped by increases in premiums for auto and home insurance. Spirit Airlines surged 17% after the company raised its fourth-quarter guidance and outlined steps it is taking to shore up liquidity. The stock had been beaten down after a ruling blocking its sale to JetBlue Airways.

Asia

The majority of stock markets in Asia and Australia are showing price gains at the start of the new trading week. The Chinese stock markets bucked the trend and fell. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.9 per cent and the Hang Seng Index even slumped by 2.0 per cent.

Bonds

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note – a benchmark for borrowing costs from mortgages to corporate loans – rose to 4.145% on Friday.

Analysis

UBS raises Richemont target to CHF 149 (136) – Buy
Citi raises Sartorius target to EUR 350 (340) – Buy
Barclays lowers Nokia to Underweight (Equalweight) – Target EUR 3 (4.60)

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