Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 08.03.2024
Morning news

Lufthansa Restores Dividend After Profit More Than Doubles

Topic of the day

Deutsche Lufthansa is planning its first dividend payout since the pandemic after profit more than doubled last year despite lower-than-expected earnings in the fourth quarter, and said it expects air-travel demand will continue to grow as passengers rush to book tickets for the Easter and summer vacations. The German carrier group on Thursday posted a net profit of 1.67 billion euros ($1.82 billion) for 2023 compared with EUR791 million the year earlier. Lufthansa said it would propose a dividend of EUR0.30 a share at its annual general meeting on May 7, in line with its long-standing policy of distributing between 20% and 40% of profit, adjusted for non-recurring gains and losses. “We want to pay our shareholders a dividend for the first time since 2019,” said Chief Executive Carsten Spohr. Lufthansa last paid a dividend of EUR0.80 per share over its 2018 profit. The decision comes after demand for leisure travel, particularly during the summer, continued to rise even in premium cabins, pushing annual revenue up 15% to EUR35.42 billion.

Swiss stocks

After a weak start and a subsequent long spell in negative territory, the Switzerland market recovered and closed modestly higher on Thursday thanks to strong buying at select frontline counters. The benchmark SMI, which dropped to a low of 11,470.77 in early trades, ended the day's session at 11,575.37, gaining 28.90 points or 0.25%. Givaudan and Lonza Group gained 2.66% and 2.55%, respectively. Sika, Richemont and Holcim gained 1.7 to 2.15%. Sonova and UBS both gained nearly 1.25%. Zurich Insurance Group, Roche Holding, Swiss Re and Partners Group ended higher by 0.75% to 1%. Novartis ended down 3.6%, while Swisscom and Swiss Life Holding ended modestly lower. In the Mid Price Index, VAT Group, Clariant, Tecan Group and Sandoz ended higher by 2.9 to 3.7%. Lindt & Sprengli, SIG Group, Straumann Holding, BKW, Ems Chemie Holding and Adecco advanced 1.2 to 2.1%. Meyer Burger Tech plunged 13%. ams OSRAM AG tumbled more than 7%, while Temenos Group, SGS and Flughafen Zurich ended modestly lower. Data from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) showed Switzerland's unemployment rate decreased for the first time in four months in February, edging down to 2.4%, from 2.5% in January. In the corresponding month last year, the jobless rate was 2.1%. Data also showed that the seasonally adjusted jobless rate stood at 2.2% in February, unchanged from January.

International markets

Europe

European stocks closed on a firm note on Thursday as investors reacted positively to the European Central Bank's inflation forecast, and on optimism about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The ECB decided to leave interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The ECB expects the eurozone economy to grow 0.6% in 2024, down from an earlier forecast of 0.8%. The central bank expects inflation to be 2.3% this year, down from the previous projection of 2.7%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that he expects interest-rate cuts to come this year. In his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today, he said interest rate cuts 'can and will begin' this year. Powell noted again that the central bank's policy-setting committee still isn't convinced that continued progress toward their 2% inflation objective is 'assured,' and that it won't make sense to cut interest rates until it is confident. Powell said that the inflation situation has 'eased notably' over the past year, and the labor market remains 'relatively tight' even as surging immigration has made more workers available. The pan European Stoxx 600 climbed 0.99%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained 0.17%, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 surged 0.71% and 0.77%, respectively, while Switzerland's SMI ended 0.25% up. Among other markets in Europe, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Turkiye closed with sharp to moderate gains. Austria, Greece, Poland and Portugal drifted lower, while Norway and Russia ended flat. In the UK market, Rentokil Initial soared more than 16% after the group reported a 45.8% surge in annual revenue. Adjusted operating profit jumped 57% in the year.

United States

Extending the rebound seen during Wednesday's session, stocks moved sharply higher during trading on Thursday. The major averages further offset the notable pullback seen to start the week, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 bouncing back to record intraday highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 241.83 points or 1.5 percent to 16,273.38, ending the day just shy of last Friday's record closing high, while the S&P 500 managed to set a new record closing high, jumping 52.60 points or 1.0 percent to 5,157.36. The narrower Dow posted a more modest gain, rising 130.30 points or 0.3 percent to 38,791.35. The extended rebound on Wall Street came as optimism about the outlook for interest rates continued to inspire traders to get back into the markets following the pullback seen on Monday and Tuesday. Semiconductor stocks led the way higher, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring by 3.4 percent to a record closing high. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) shot up by 4.5 percent after Mizuho Securities raised its price target on the AI darling to $1,000 per share, while Micron (MU) surged by 3.6 percent after Stifel upgraded its rating on the chipmaker's stock to Buy from Hold. Considerable strength was also visible among oil service stocks, as reflected by the 1.9 percent jump by the Philadelphia Oil Service Index. The strength in the sector came despite a modest decrease by the price of crude oil. Housing stocks also showed a strong move to the upside, driving the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index up by 1.6 percent to a record closing high. Software, gold and retail stocks also saw notable strength on the day, while networking stocks were among the few groups to buck the uptrend.

Asia

The Asian stock markets are showing a rising trend on Friday. Positive comments from central banks, which emphasise the expectation that interest rates will soon fall, are lifting sentiment. In addition, Wall Street provided positive guidance. In Hong Kong, the HSI, which had been very weak the previous day, rose by 1.3 per cent, while Shanghai held its ground. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index gained 0.2 per cent to 39,714 points. It is being held back by the yen, which has continued to strengthen against the dollar, which is unfavourable for the Japanese export industry. The price of a troy ounce of gold is little changed at 2,158 dollars, just below the record high reached the previous day.

Bonds

In the U.S. bond market, treasuries showed a lack of direction before eventually closing modestly higher. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged down by 1.2 basis points to a one-month closing low of 4.092 percent.

Analysis

UBS lowers Clariant to CHF 15 (16) – Buy
UBS raises Pirelli to EUR 6.20 (5.70) – Buy
Dt. Bank lowers Bayer to EUR 29 (34) – Hold

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