Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 19.06.2024
Morning news

Nvidia’s Ascent to Most Valuable Company Has Echoes of Dot-Com Boom

Topic of the day

Nvidia’s blistering rise through the ranks of the largest U.S. companies is set to culminate Tuesday with the chip maker taking over the title of most valuable. With Nvidia shares NVDA up 3.5% in Tuesday trading, the company is on track to pass Microsoft Corp. MSFT at the close and become the largest U.S. company by market value. Nvidia’s market cap is $3.34 trillion based on intraday activity, while Microsoft’s is $3.328 trillion. Apple is a close third with a market cap of $3.278 trillion. This is the first time that Nvidia has been the largest on an intraday basis, though its status as the new market-cap leader would become official if trends hold through the close. Dating back to 2001, only five companies have gotten to call themselves most valuable in the U.S., according to Dow Jones Market Data. Those are Microsoft, Apple Inc. AAPL, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM and the former General Electric GE. Apple occupied the spot the longest during that span, while Amazon held down the position for only 13 sessions in 2019. Nvidia shares have been on an eye-popping run over the past year or so as the company has proven itself the major financial beneficiary of the artificial-intelligence rush. Nvidia’s stock is up 174% so far this year, and it’s ahead 217% over the past 12 months. Microsoft’s stock has gained 19% this year and Apple’s had advanced 11%. Nvidia’s market-cap rise has far-ranging implications, as it will force the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF XLK to sell Apple shares and buy up almost $10 billion worth of Nvidia’s stock to reflect the new weightings of the S&P Technology Select Sector Index that it tracks. Hewlett Packard Enterprise is teaming up with Nvidia to offer a set of integrated AI hardware and software tools for enterprise customers.

Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market closed slightly firmer on Tuesday, with the SMI gaining 0.4 per cent to 12,047 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were 16 gainers and four losers. A total of 15.62 (previously: 15.22) million shares were traded. The SMI was weighed down by the heavyweights Nestlé (-0.2%) and Novartis (-0.4%). Roche (+1%) was supported to some degree by the news that the pharmaceutical group is collaborating with the US biotechnology company Ascidian Therapeutics to develop gene therapies for the treatment of neurological diseases. Shares in the construction sector were in demand across Europe. In Switzerland, Geberit, Holcim and Sika climbed by up to 0.8 per cent. Richemont lost 0.6 per cent. Among the second-line stocks, Komax dropped 2.9 per cent. The company had issued a profit warning for the current financial year.

International markets

Europe

The European stock markets closed higher on Tuesday, continuing their technical rebound after last week's underperformance. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.7% to 515.0 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 both climbed 0.8%. The DAX 40 pocketed 0.4% in Frankfurt and the FTSE 100 advanced 0.6% in London. Carrefour slumped 4.3% as the supermarket group faces a heavy civil fine in the dispute with some of its franchisees. According to a summons sent by the French Ministry of the Economy, to which the Agefi-Dow Jones agency has had access, Bercy is seeking a civil fine of a record €200 million against Carrefour for abusive practices committed by the latter to the detriment of its franchisees and tenant managers. The group disputes these accusations. Airport operator Groupe ADP (+3.1%) saw its traffic rise by 8.4% in May compared with the same month in 2023. Car manufacturer Renault (+1.4%) announced plans to double sales of its Dacia brand between 2022 and 2030, while boosting profitability. The manufacturer of active ingredients for the pharmaceutical industry Euroapi (+3.7%) has signed a development and manufacturing agreement for a five-year oncology project with the Irish biotech company Priothera.

United States

Nvidia continued grinding higher Tuesday, helping the S&P 500 eke out its 31st record close of the year. Many traders held their fire in a subdued trading session before U.S. stock and bond markets closed for Juneteenth on Wednesday. Even so, the S&P 500’s chip-heavy information-technology sector notched an eighth-straight gain, its longest winning streak since November. The artificial-intelligence trade helped push the broader S&P 500 0.3% higher. After wobbling between small gains and losses throughout the day, the Nasdaq Composite finished slightly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up by 0.1%, or 57 points. Markets have been exceptionally calm in recent weeks as investors parse data about how the U.S. economy is holding up under slowly moderating inflation and still-high interest rates. Fresh reports provided mixed signals on Tuesday, with May retail sales rising less than expected while manufacturing production revved up. Nvidia led the way Tuesday with a 3.5% gain, closing ahead of Microsoft as the most valuable listed U.S. company for the first time. Investors now value the maker of artificial-intelligence chips at $3.34 trillion. Shares in each of the other members of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech titans fell. In oil markets, benchmark U.S. crude traded at $81.57 a barrel, extending a rebound from early June. Tuesday’s move helped prop up shares in Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Occidental Petroleum veered 1.8% higher after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway snapped up about 2.9 million additional shares of the oil company. While trading Tuesday was quiet, many investors are looking ahead to the rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Russell indexes after markets close the next two Fridays, respectively.

Asia

Significantly lower US yields in the wake of weak retail sales data and Nvidia's soaring share price are fuelling technology stocks across Asian stock exchanges on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the stock markets did not see a widespread rally. Hong Kong (+1.9%) and Seoul (+1.0%), where AI fantasy is driving technology stocks and thus also the indices upwards, are recording significant gains. Other places also saw moderate declines to some extent. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.3 per cent. Semiconductor stocks are also rising in Shanghai, fuelled by Nvidia's soaring performance in the USA. Giga Device Semiconductor climbed by 2.3 per cent and Cambricon Technologies by 1.3 per cent. In Hong Kong, Lenovo increased by a further 5.2 per cent after the previous day's surge. The Japanese Nikkei index adds 0.2 per cent to 38,561 points. Semiconductor and technology stocks are also leading the way in Tokyo. Advantest soared by 3.3 per cent. In Seoul, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix jumped 3.1 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively in the chip segment. Hyundai Motor advanced by a further 1.2 per cent - fuelled by the stock market plans of its Indian subsidiary.

Bonds

U.S. government debt yields retreated on Tuesday as bond traders digested another disappointing retail-sales report. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.221%. The 2-year Treasury note yield declined by 6 basis points to 4.716%. For the time being, the market is leaning towards a first Fed rate cut in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Analysis

Price target Cosmo: Kepler Cheuvreux upgrades to CHF 84 (76) - Buy
Target price Pierer Mobility: Research Partners lowers to CHF 45.70 (84) - Buy
Price target SGS: Goldman Sachs downgrades to CHF 79 (81) - Sell
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