Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 22.08.2024
Morning news

Swiss Re Exceeds Expectations and Confirms Outlook

Topic of the day

Swiss Re has benefited from a lower burden of major losses, a solid investment result and strong life reinsurance business in the first half of the year. The reinsurer increased its profit and confirmed its targets for the full year. Net profit rose to USD 2.1 billion in the first six months from USD 1.8 billion in the same period of the previous year. In the second quarter alone, the Group earned 996 million dollars. Analysts had expected 925 million dollars in a consensus published by the company itself. In life reinsurance, profit rose from 604 million dollars to 883 million dollars in the first half of the year, thanks to low mortality rates in the USA and higher investment income. In non-life reinsurance, it increased from 973 million dollars to 989 million dollars. In the current year, the Group is still aiming for a net profit of 3.6 billion US dollars and a combined ratio in property and casualty reinsurance of less than 87 percent. In the first half of the year, the ratio was 84.5 percent. It puts expenses and income in relation to each other. An insurance company operates profitably below a ratio of 100 percent.

Swiss stocks

The Switzerland market ended marginally down on Wednesday after spending much of the day's session in negative territory, as investors largely refrained from making significant moves, choosing to wait for more clarity about the quantum of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The benchmark SMI ended down 16.45 points or 0.13% at 12,250.11, after moving in a very narrow range between 12,215.53 and 12,274.31. Alcon ended down 2.32% on weak results. The eye care product company's second-quarter revenue and EBIT margin fell below market expectations. However, the company recorded a year-over-year rise in net sales to third parties to $2.48 billion from $2.40 billion, while net income also increased to $223 million from $169 million. Sonova, Swiss Life Holding, Lonza Group, UBS Group, Julius Baer and Partners Group lost 0.3 to 1%. Holcim gained 0.83% and Richemont ended 0.7% up. Sandoz Group climbed 0.53%, while Swatch Group and Givaudan ended higher by 0.39% and 0.34%, respectively. Although there are expectations the Fed will cut interest rate next month, revised data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that showed job growth in the U.S. was weaker than previously reported in the twelve months ended March 2024, has raised some concerns about growth. The BLS said the U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from March 2023 to March 2024 than initially reported, reflecting 0.5% weaker job growth.

International markets

Europe

European stocks closed broadly higher on Wednesday, thanks largely to gains in the mining sector. The undertone remained firm amid continued optimism about an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. The Labor Department today revealed the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the twelve-month period ended March 2024. It is felt that the weaker than expected previously reported job growth may increase pressure on the Fed to lower rates to support the job market. Investors looked ahead to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting for more clarity about the U.S. central bank's interest rate moves. The pan European Stoxx 600 ended 0.33% up. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained 0.12%, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 ended higher by 0.5% and 0.52%, respectively. Switzerland's SMI edged down 0.13%. Among other markets in Europe, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Netherlands, Poland, Russia and Spain ended higher. Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Turkiye closed weak, while Portugal ended flat. In the UK market, JD Sports Fashion rallied 4% and Airtel Africa climbed nearly 3%. Croda International and Diageo gained 2.1% and 2%, respectively. RightMove, Prudential, Anglo American Plc, Melrose Industries, Vistry Group, IMI, Reckitt Benckiser, Auto Trader Group, Pershing Square Holdings, Rio Tinto, Convatec, Coca-Cola HBC, Marks & Spencer, Persimmon and Experian gained 1 to 1.85%. Severn Trent ended down nearly 2.5%. Antofagasta, 3i Group, United Utilities, BT Group, Centrica and Barratt Developments lost 1 to 1.7%. In the German market, Porsche gained about 2.3%. BASF, Adidas, Infineon, Mercedes-Benz, Beiersdorf, Brenntag, BMW, Henkel and Sartorius climbed 1 to 2%. MTU Aero Engines, Bayer, Deutsche Telekom, Hannover Rueck and Merck closed weak. In the French market, Pernod Ricard climbed about 3%.

United States

Stocks edged higher after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting reinforced expectations that the central bank would likely cut interest rates in September. Minutes released Wednesday showed a "vast majority" of Fed officials said "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting" if economic data continued to come in as expected. Some saw a case for reducing rates in July. A preliminary downward revision to payroll numbers suggested the job market wasn't as hot as it seemed earlier this year. U.S. employers might have added 818,000 fewer jobs than previously believed in the 12 months through March, the Labor Department said. After the minutes and jobs report revision, traders increased their bets on the size of the Fed's rate cut in September. Traders on Wednesday were pricing in a roughly 39% chance of a 0.5 percentage point cut at the Fed's next meeting, compared with a 29% probability on Tuesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. They see near-certain odds of at least a 0.25 percentage point cut. Meanwhile, earnings reports from big retailers provided more clues about the state of the U.S. consumer. Strong results from discount-focused retailers such as Target and the owner of T.J. Maxx suggested customers are resilient, but hunting for deals. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, a day after snapping an eight-session winning streak. The Dow industrials gained about 55 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%. Target and TJX shares rose after both retailers raised profit forecasts. Macy's stock fell after the company reported another quarter of shrinking sales.

Asia

On the stock markets in East Asia and Australia, there is little broad-based movement on Thursday, even if the underlying tone is positive. The indices show only very small swings to either side

Bonds

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a new 52-week low at 3.778%.

Analysis

Julius Baer raises Straumann to CHF 130 (128)/Hold – Trader
UBS raises PSP Swiss Property to CHF 133 (130)/Buy – Trader
UBS raises Huber+Suhner to CHF 94 (91) – Buy

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