Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 30.09.2024
Morning news

Volkswagen Slashes Guidance as Challenges Pile Up

Topic of the day

Volkswagen cut its sales and profitability forecasts for the year, joining a growing list of European rivals in lowering their targets as the industry faces an increasingly bumpy transition to electric vehicles. The German car maker said it now expects sales of around 320 billion euros ($357.68 billion) in 2024 compared with the €322.3 billion it reported last year, as the company anticipates about 9 million vehicles will be delivered to customers, below the 9.24 million units delivered in 2023. The company had previously forecast an increase of up to 5% in sales and up to 3% in deliveries. Volkswagen on Friday became the latest European car maker to cut its annual forecasts: Mercedes-Benz last week cut its margin guidance for the second time in under two months amid weakness in China, while BMW earlier this month lowered its sales and earnings targets, saying expensive measures to fix a braking-system problem and muted demand in the world’s largest car market would dilute its bottom line. Volkswagen, for its part, said its decision stemmed from developments at its core Volkswagen Passenger Cars brand, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles and Tech. Components as well as a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.

Swiss stocks

The Switzerland market ended on a strong not on Wednesday as stocks kept edging higher after a slightly weak start. Expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributed to the positive mood in the market. Investors also looked ahead to the Swiss National Bank's policy announcement this week. The benchmark SMI ended up 99.53 points or 0.83% at 12,148.39, slightly off the session's high. Straumann Holding, up 4.6%, was the top gainer in the benchmark index. Givaudan, SIG Group, VAT Group, ABB, Richemont, Geberit and Sika gained 2 to 2.6%. Schindler Ps ended 1.88% up. Sonova, Swatch Group, SGS and Holcim gained 1.3 to 1.7%, while Swisscom, Novartis, Julius Baer, Alcon, Swiss Re, Lindt & Spruengli, Zurich Insurance and Roche Holding ended higher by 0.5 to 1%. UBS Group shares ended down 0.89%. Adecco closed lower by 0.72%, and Sandoz Group drifted down 0.56%. In economic news, a report from UBS & CFA Society said the Swiss investors' sentiment index dropped by 5.4 points from the previous month to 8.8 in September 2024, marking its second consecutive month in negative territory.

International markets

Europe

European stocks closed higher on Friday, with several major markets hitting record highs, as investors continued to cheer China's stimulus announcements, and bet on hopes of more interest-rate cuts by central banks. Soft inflation data from France and Spain also helped underpin sentiment. The pan European Stoxx 600 ended up 0.47%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 climbed 0.43%. Germany's DAX ended higher by 1.22%, and France's CAC 40 closed up 0.64%. Switzerland's SMI advanced 0.2%. Among other markets in Europe, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia and Spain ended higher. Denmark, Greece, Sweden and Turkiye closed weak. In the UK market, Croda International, Smith & Nephew, Frasers Group, Entain, Halma, Sainsbury (J), Spirax Group and IAG gained 2 to 3.3%. Prudential gained 2.7% on reports the firm is close to finalizing a 15-year partnership with Indonesia's largest Islamic lender, PT Bank Syariah Indonesia, in a deal reportedly worth several hundred million dollars. Prudential has also reportedly agreed to acquire full ownership of Prudential Zenith Life Insurance, its joint venture in Nigeria. Next, Endeavour Mining, Fresnillo, Beazley, SSE and Howden Joinery ended notably lower. In the German market, Brenntag, Infineon and BASF gained 6.5 to 7%.

United States

Stocks turned in a mixed performance during trading on Friday, with the major averages ending the day on opposite sides of the unchanged line. The Dow rose to a new record closing high, but the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 gave background. While the Dow pulled back well off its highs of the session, the blue chip index still ended the day up 137.89 points or 0.3 percent at 42,313.00. The Nasdaq fell 70.70 points or 0.4 percent to 18,119.59 and the S&P 500 edged down 7.20 points or 0.1 percent to 5,738.17. Despite the mixed performance on the day, the major averages all moved higher for the week, The Nasdaq jumped by 1.0 percent, while the Dow and the S&P 500 both climbed by 0.6 percent. The mixed performance on Wall Street came following the release of closely watched readings on U.S. consumer price inflation in the month of August. The Commerce Department said its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inched up by 0.1 percent in August after rising by 0.2 percent in July. The uptick matched expectations. The report also said the annual rate of growth by the PCE price index slowed to 2.2 percent in August from 2.5 percent in July. Economists had expected the pace of growth to slow to 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index also edged up by 0.1 percent in August after increasing by 0.2 percent in July. Core prices were expected to rise by another 0.2 percent. Oil service stocks showed a significant rebound after falling sharply over the two previous sessions, resulting in a 2.6 percent surge by the Philadelphia Oil Service Index. The rally by oil service stocks came amid an increase by the price of crude oil. Considerable strength was also visible among telecom stocks, as reflected by the 2.0 percent jump by the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index. The index reached its best closing level in over two years.

Asia

Extreme price movements characterized the stock markets in East Asia on Monday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted by 4.7 per cent to 37,962 points, while in Shanghai and Hong Kong the bull market of the previous week continued. The Composite Index in Shanghai shoots up by 5.7 per cent, while the HSI in Hong Kong makes a further leap of 3.3 per cent. The movements in Seoul (-0.7 per cent) and Sydney (+0.8 per cent) in Australia almost disappear.

Bonds

In the U.S. bond market, treasuries ended the day firmly in positive territory following the inflation data. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid 4.2 basis points to 3.749 percent.

Analysis

Bank of America lowers Zurich Airport target to CHF 235 (240)/Buy – Trader
JP Morgan raises Euronext target to EUR 115 (107) – Overweight
HSBC lowers BASF target to 45 (47) EUR/Hold – Trader

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