Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 03.10.2024
Morning news

TotalEnergies Lifts Production Target, Sticks with Shareholder Return Policy

Topic of the day

TotalEnergies slightly raised its target for annual oil and gas production, and stuck to its shareholder return policy at a time when most European majors look likely to pull back on their lofty buyback pledges. The French energy major said Wednesday that it plans to grow its oil-and-gas production by around 3% annually between 2024 and 2030, driven mostly by its output of liquefied natural gas, through a low-cost, low-emission upstream portfolio. It also outlined a target for overall energy output, which includes electricity and bioenergy alongside hydrocarbons, of 4% growth a year through the decade. TotalEnergies previously planned to grow its oil-and-gas production by 2% to 3% a year. Europe's second-largest integrated oil company by market value also said it plans to pay out $8 billion in share buybacks in 2024 and continue a rate of $2 billion a quarter next year. It confirmed its return policy of more than 40% of cash flow from its operations.

Swiss stocks

The Swiss market ended modestly higher on Wednesday despite struggling for direction after a fall from earlier high levels. Concerns about tensions in the Middle East, and a lack of positive triggers rendered the mood cautious. Investors looked ahead to the inflation data, due on Thursday, for directional clues. The benchmark SMI, which advanced to 12,159.78 in early trades after a marginally positive start, dropped to 12,055.56 around late afternoon, but recovered to settle at 12,122.09, gaining 35.43 points or 0.29%. Julius Baer, Richemont and Swatch Group gained 2 to 2.1%. Sonova climbed 1.83%, while UBS Group and SIG Group ended up 1.39% and 1.18%, respectively. ABB gained about 0.75% after the company signed a memorandum of understanding with artificial intelligence provider Carbon Re to collaborate on reducing carbon emissions in the cement industry. Logitech International, SGS, VAT Group, ABB, Lindt & Spruengli, Novartis and Straumann Holding gained 0.4 to 1%. Sandoz Group dropped about 3.2%. Givaudan, Swiss Re, Swisscom, Lonza Group, Swiss Life Holding, Adecco, Kuehne + Nagel and Holcim lost 0.5 to 0.9%.

International markets

Europe

European stocks turned in a mixed performance on Wednesday with investors closely following the developments on the geopolitical front, and awaiting fresh data from directional clues. The mood was cautious amid concerns that Middle East tensions could escalate and potentially disrupt crude output from the region. The pan European Stoxx 600 edged up 0.05%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained 0.17% and France's CAC 40 crept up 0.05%, while Germany's DAX ended down 0.25%. Switzerland's SMI gained 0.29%. In the UK market, Prudential climbed more than 4%, Coca-Cola gained about 3.3% and Standard Chartered gained more than 2%, while BAE Systems closed nearly 2% up. Shell, HSBC Holdings, Fresnillo, Anglo American Plc, BP, Rio Tinto, IMI, AstraZeneca, RS Group, 3i and Spirax-Sarco advanced 1 to 1.8%. JD Sports Fashion tumbled more than 6% despite the British sportswear retail chain reporting record sales in the 26 weeks to August and reaffirming its FY25 guidance. In the German market, Adidas gained nearly 2%. Rheinmetall, Deutsche Boerse, BASF, Daimler Truck Holding and Merck gained 0.6 to 1.3%. In the French market, STMicroElectronics, Thales, Pernod Ricard, L'Oreal, LVMH, Vinci and Publicis Groupe posted moderate gains.

United States

After recovering from an early move to the downside, stocks showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Wednesday. The major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before eventually closing slightly higher. The Dow edged up 39.55 points or 0.1 percent to 42,196.52, the Nasdaq inched up 14.76 points or 0.1 percent to 17,925.12 and the S&P 500 crept up 0.79 points or less than a tenth of a percent to 5,709.54. The early weakness on Wall Street partly reflected concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East following Iran's ballistic missile attack against Israel on Tuesday. While Iran has said it is not interested in a wider war, the attacks have contributed to a surge by the price of crude oil, leading to worries higher energy prices will lead to a resurgence in inflation. Tesla’s global deliveries rebounded in the third quarter, reversing earlier declines this year that had stoked concerns on Wall Street about the company’s ability to grow its car business. The world’s most valuable automaker delivered a total of 462,890 vehicles during the July-to-September period, roughly in line with analysts’ expectations. Humana shares slid more than 10% Wednesday after the health insurer warned that a steep drop in the federal government’s quality ratings of its Medicare plans could hit its results in 2026.

Asia

Stock markets in East Asia and Australia were again very mixed on Thursday. Tokyo is still on a rollercoaster ride, while the Hong Kong stock market is taking profits after the bull market of the past few trading days. The HSI slipped by 3.1 per cent, which was probably primarily due to profit-taking.

Bonds

In the bond market, treasuries gave back ground following the strength seen in the previous session. As result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 4.2 basis points to 3.785 percent.

Analysis

Barclays lowers Pernod-Ricard to EUR 118 (119) – Underweight
BoA lowers Arcelormittal to EUR 27 (29) – Neutral
BoA lowers Infineon target to EUR 36 (42) – Buy

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