Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 07.10.2024
Morning news

EU to Move Ahead With New Tariffs on Chinese-Made EVs

Topic of the day

The European Union will move ahead with tariffs of up to 45% on electric vehicles made in China, defying pleas from some European auto executives who fear retaliation from Beijing and an escalating trade war. EU member states voted Friday to impose the new import duties that will apply for the next five years in a move aimed at protecting European carmakers amid rising competition from Chinese-made vehicles. According to experts at the Swiss government, the EU's punitive tariffs on e-cars from China will have no impact on imports into Switzerland. On Monday, Chinese car stocks rose sharply, despite the fact that the European Union intends to impose tariffs of up to 45 per cent on electric cars manufactured in China. However, the door for further negotiations does not yet appear to be closed. Shares in Geely and BYD rose by up to 5.7 per cent. The EU duties approved Friday range from 7.8% to 35.3% and will come on top of the EU’s existing standard 10% import duty on all imported cars, therefore bringing the total tariff that some manufacturers will pay to just over 45%. The U.S. and Canada have imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports.

Swiss stocks

The Swiss stock market barely held its ground going into the weekend. The SMI lost 0.1 per cent to 11,997 points. Among the 20 SMI stocks, there were ten losers and ten winners. A total of 14.6 (previously: 14.62) million shares were traded. Investors disposed of the heavyweights Nestlé (-0.3%) and Roche (-1%). Novartis fared slightly better with a small gain of 0.2 per cent. Shares in Swisscom (-0.4%) and Givaudan (-1.6%), which are also considered defensive, were also avoided. UBS improved by 0.8 per cent. Swiss Life, Swiss Re and Zurich gained between 0.6 and 1 per cent. In the second tier, shares in recruitment agency Adecco benefited from the U.S. labour market data with a gain of 0.5 per cent.

International markets

Europe

The European stock markets advanced on Friday, as employment figures published across the Atlantic supported the scenario of a soft landing for the US economy. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.4% to 518.6 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 and SBF 120 added 0.9% each. The DAX 40 in Frankfurt rose by 0.6%, while the FTSE 100 in London finished virtually unchanged. Over the week as a whole, the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 1.8%. The main shareholders of Ubisoft (+33.5%) are considering various strategic options to boost the value of the video game publisher, including a takeover, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing sources close to the matter. Industrial laundry group Elis (+10%) ended discussions with Vestis and UniFirst, respectively number two and number three in the US uniform rental and maintenance market. Pernod Ricard lost 1.4%. Cognac producers fear being targeted by the government in Beijing following the announcement of new customs duties in the European Union on Chinese electric vehicles. La Française des Jeux (+0.7%) announced on Thursday evening the success of its takeover bid for the Swedish company Kindred, owner of the online betting site Unibet. In total, 90.66% of Kindred's capital was contributed to the gambling operator.

United States

Major U.S. stock indexes rose Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report showed robust health in the labor market. The climb came after Friday’s payrolls report showed the U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, topping forecasts by more than 100,000 positions. Gains in previous months were revised up, and the unemployment rate also defied expectations, moderating to 4.1%. Employment is important to the Fed’s deliberations about how far and how fast to bring down interest rates. Friday’s jobs report also helped reassure some economists that the Fed is on track to cool inflation without a significant decline in economic activity. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2%, while the Dow industrials and S&P 500 added about 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. That was enough for all three indexes to eke out slight weekly gains. Smaller stocks surged. The Russell 2000 outpaced indexes of larger-capitalization shares, climbing 1.5%. Spirit Airlines stock tumbled, plummeting 25% on news of a possible bankruptcy filing. Rival JetBlue Airways, which had sought to acquire Spirit, gained 14%. Among the DJIA, the good employment figures benefited the heavyweights in the banking, manufacturing and technology sectors. JPMorgan gained 3.6% and American Express 3%, while Boeing picked up 3% and Amazon 2.5%. CVS Health ended up 2.6% at $64.59, after TD Cowen upgraded its recommendation to buy on the stock and raised its target from $59 to $85. Electric van manufacturer Rivian (down 3.2%) lowered its production forecasts this year due to disruptions on its assembly lines caused by component shortages. The group expects to produce 48,000 electric vehicles in the middle of the range, compared with 57,000 previously. Rivian has, however, maintained its sales forecast of 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles this year.

Asia

In Asia, major indexes broadly closed with gains on Monday, led by the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei-225 is up 2.2 per cent. The Hang Seng Index increased by a further 1.1 per cent, extending its recent gains. The latest stimuli for the Chinese economy, including the property sector, continued to provide support. Against this backdrop, the Shanghai stock exchange is expected to record strong profits when opening on Tuesday. The Kospi in Seoul is up 1.3 per cent. Here, the shares of index heavyweight Samsung Electronics are down 0.7 per cent. The company will present preliminary results for the third quarter on Tuesday. SK Hynix lost 3.8 per cent.

Bonds

U.S. Treasury yields recorded their biggest weekly advances in up to two years on Friday after September’s nonfarm-payrolls report produced far more new jobs than expected, erasing the likelihood of another big Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month. The 10-year Treasury note yield jumped by 12 basis points to 3.974%. The 2-year Treasury note yield shot up 22 basis points to 3.932%.

Analysis

Baader upgrades Sonova to CHF 366 (338) - Add
Stifel raises Sika to CHF 300 (270) - Buy
RBC cuts Adecco to CHF 36 (38) - Outperform

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