Research Market strategy
By Swissquote Analysts
Published on 12.12.2024
Morning news

TUI Shares Slip on Slower Growth Expectations

Topic of the day

TUI shares fell after the company guided for a lower rate of growth in the current fiscal year, despite posting a jump in profit for fiscal 2024 on strong demand. The German travel operator said it was targeting a 5% to 10% increase in revenue and underlying earnings before interest and taxes growth of 7% to 10% for fiscal 2025. The marks a slowdown compared with revenue growth of 12% and underlying EBIT growth of 33% for fiscal 2024. Shares in midday European trading were down 2.7% at €8.23, recovering some ground after falling as much as 8.5% earlier in the session. “While the tour operator is confident of sustaining further EBIT and revenue growth in FY25, inflationary pressures and fragile consumer confidence are likely to weigh on discretionary spending, with TUI also facing stiff competition from more agile rivals,” Begbies Traynor’s Julie Palmer said in a note to clients. The guidance comes as more than half of TUI’s winter offerings have been sold with bookings up 4% on year and average prices 5% higher supported packaged holidays, the company said.

Swiss stocks

The Switzerland market started off on a weak note on Wednesday, but recovered swiftly and kept edging higher as the day progressed to eventually close on a positive note with investors looking ahead to Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision on Thursday. Investors also digested U.S. consumer price inflation data, which came in line with expectations and raised the possibility of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Swiss National Bank is widely expected to lower interest rate by 25 basis points. The European Central Bank, which is also scheduled to announce its monetary policy tomorrow, is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The benchmark SMI closed up 39.48 points or 0.34% at 11,681.87, recovering from an early low of 11,618.72. Givaudan rallied 3.54%. SGS closed nearly 2.5% up. VAT Group and SIG Group gained 1.09% and 0.9%, respectively. Lonza Group, Holcim, Julius Baer, Swiss Life Holding, Geberit, Logitech International and Straumann Holding posted modest gains. Swiss Re and Adecco both closed lower by more than 2%. Swatch Group, Novartis, UBS Group, Sika and Sonova lost 1.3 to 1.7%. Sandoz Group, Zurich Insurance Group, Nestlé and Swisscom declined 0.8 to 1.2%. Roche Holding and Alcon also closed weak.

International markets

Europe

The major European markets closed higher on Wednesday with investors reacting positively to U.S. consumer price inflation data, which came in line with expectations, and looking ahead to the European Central Bank' monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The pan European Stoxx 600 climbed 0.28%. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 gained 0.26%, Germany's DAX advanced 0.34% and France's CAC 40 closed higher by 0.39%. Switzerland's SMI closed up 0.34%. Among other markets in Europe, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands and Portugal ended higher. Belgium, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden and Turkiye closed weak, while Austria, Greece and Norway ended flat. In the UK market, Endeavour Mining climbed nearly 6%. Pearson rallied 3.35%. Reckitt Benckiser, Fresnillo, Lloyds Banking Group, IAG, Rentokil Initial, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Anglo American Plc, Diageo, IHG, BAE Systems, Persimmon, Haleon, Bunzl and Entain gained 1 to 3%. RM Plc shares jumped more than 8%. The provider of educational technology and assessment solutions said its anticipated results for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2024, are likely to exceed market expectations. GSK, British Land, Segro, Severn Trent, DCC, Ashtead Group, Land Securities, Smith (DS), BT Group, National Grid, Scottish Mortgage, Shell, Frasers Group, Marks & Spencer and Vodafone Group closed down 1 to 2.5%. In the German market, Siemens Energy gained more than 3%, rebounding strongly after a weak start. The stock fell earlier in the session after U.S. rival GE Vernova sounded cautious about the outlook for the struggling wind sector. Zalando dropped more than 6% in early trades after the company struck a deal to buy rival fashion group About You Holding for 1.1 billion euros. However, it shrugged off early weakness and moved higher to settle with a gain of nearly 2%. Vonovia, HeidelbergCement, Fresenius and Rheinmetall also posted strong gains. Siemens, Beiersdorf, Henkel, Allianz, Symrise, MTU Aero Engines and Siemens Healthineers also closed notably higher.

United States

Stocks moved mostly higher during trading on Wednesday, rebounding strongly following the pullback seen to start the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq showed a particularly strong upward move, closing above 20,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq surged 347.65 points or 1.8 percent to a new record closing high of 20,034.89, while the S&P 500 climbed 49.28 points or 0.8 percent to 6,084.19. Meanwhile, the narrower Dow showed a lack of direction over the course of the session before closing down 99.27 points or 0.2 percent at 44,148.56. The blue chip index closed lower for the fifth straight session amid a slump by shares of UnitedHealth (UNH). The strength in the broader markets came following the release of closely watched consumer price inflation data that came in line with economist estimates. The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.3 percent in November after rising by 0.2 percent for four straight months. The increase matched expectations. The annual rate of growth by consumer prices ticked up to 2.7 percent in November from 2.6 percent in October, which was also in line with estimates. Exxon Mobil said it plans to grow its earnings at a compound annual growth rate of 10% and boost spending on capital projects through 2030. The biggest U.S. oil company laid out an extensive six-year strategic plan on Wednesday that targets an additional $20 billion in potential earnings growth and $30 billion in cash flow potential. The Spring, Texas, company said it also aims to unlock an additional $7 billion in structural cost savings through 2030 by simplifying its business processes, optimizing supply chains and modernizing its information-technology and data-management systems. Walgreens is in talks to sell itself to a private-equity firm in a deal that would take the pharmacy chain off the public market after its shares have been on a downward slide for nearly a decade. Walgreens Boots Alliance and Sycamore Partners have been discussing a deal that could be completed early next year, assuming talks don’t fall apart, according to people familiar with the matter.

Asia

The East Asian stock exchanges followed Wall Street's firmer lead on Thursday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index gained 1.3 per cent to 39,900 points, in Seoul it rose by 0.7 per cent and there was also a buying mood on the Chinese stock exchanges. Hong Kong rose by 1.7 per cent and Shanghai by 0.6 per cent.

Bonds

In the U.S. bond market, treasuries moved lower over the course of the session after showing a lack of direction in early trading. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 5.0 basis points to 4.271 percent.

Analysis

HSBC lowers the Remy Cointreau target to EUR 52 (65) – Hold
HSBC lowers the Heineken target to EUR 80 (86) – Hod
Dt. Bank lowers the Hapag-Lloyd target to EUR 108 (128) – Sell

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