By Swissquote Analysts
JPMorgan Warns Economy Is Facing Considerable Turbulence
Topic of the day
Morgan Stanley said its profit jumped in the first quarter, fueled by a surge in trading revenue. The bank’s profit increased 26% to $4.32 billion in the first three months of the year. That amounted to $2.60 per share, easily surpassing the $2.18 per share analysts expected. Its revenue increased 17% to a record $17.74 billion. Analysts had expected $16.54 billion. Trading revenue surged, led by a 45% increase in equities. Wall Street has seen a surge in trading activity since President Trump’s tariffs were announced last week. JPMorgan warns economy Is facing considerable turbulence. The bank also posted better-than-expected earnings but raised concerns over a slowing global economy that could lead to loan losses and stall capital markets. Wall Street executives Friday warned President Trump’s tariffs were sending the U.S. economy into the unknown and that the uncertainty was already hurting consumers and companies alike.
Swiss stocks
The Swiss stock market ended Friday's trading session in negative territory. The SMI was not spared by the instability prevailing on the world markets, after the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China reached a new stage. The SMI ended the session down 0.04% at 11,239.83 points, with a high of 11,329.73 points and a low of 11,058.84 points. The SLI shed 0.05% to 1813.97 points. In contrast, the SPI gained 0.33% to 15,112.54 points. Of the 30 leading stocks, 14 advanced, 15 fell and one remained unchanged (Richemont). The day's top performers were Schindler (+2.4%), Lindt (+1.8%) and Novartis (+1.6%). The Basel-based pharmaceuticals giant confirmed its intention to inject 23 billion dollars over five years into its production and research capacities in the United States. Swatch Group (+1.3%), Givaudan (+1.2%) and Nestlé (+0.8%) also did well. Roche (+0.3%) was one of the winners at the last minute. On the losing side was UBS (-0.4%). The Federal Supreme Court declared inadmissible an appeal by the bank against a decision by the Court of Appeal of the Federal Criminal Court in the case of money laundering by the Bulgarian mafia.
International markets
Europe
European stocks moved mostly lower on Friday after logging their biggest one-day gains since 2022 the previous day as U.S. President Donald Trump decided to delay new tariffs by 90 days. The euro surged to the highest level against the dollar in over three years after the EU said it would suspend its planned countermeasures to Trump's tariffs for 90 days. Sterling also jumped as new data showed Britain's economy picked up faster than expected in February. French President Emmanuel Macron said today that the U.S. tariff suspension offers only a 'fragile' pause in tensions - but a vital opportunity for negotiations. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index edged down 0.1 percent to 486.80 after rallying 3.7 percent on Thursday. The German DAX Index slid by 0.9 percent and the French CAC 40 Index fell by 0.3 percent, although the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index bucked the downtrend and climbed by 0.6 percent. The strength in the U.K. markets came after the data from the Office for National Statistics revealed the U.K. economy expanded at a faster than expected pace in February with increases in all main sectors. Real GDP grew 0.5 percent from the previous month following a nil growth in January. GDP was expected to climb 0.1 percent. On a yearly basis, real GDP advanced 1.4 percent compared to economists' forecast of 0.9 percent. Meanwhile, U.K. recruiters reported the steepest rise in permanent and temporary labor supply in more than four years in March, while job placements declined notably due to weaker economic confidence and tighter client budgets, according to a report compiled by S&P Global. Stellantis NV share slumped 3.9 percent. The auto giant reported that its first-quarter shipments fell 9 percent compared to last year. BP Plc also tumbled by 2.9 percent after the energy group warned of 'weak' gas trading and higher debt in the first quarter.
United States
After showing a lack of direction early in the session, stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the trading day on Friday. The major averages all showed strong moves to the upside, partly offsetting the substantial pullback seen during Thursday's session. The major averages moved roughly sideways going into the close, hovering firmly in positive territory. The Nasdaq shot up 337.14 points or 2.1 percent to 16,724.46, the S&P 500 surged 95.31 points or 1.8 percent to 5.363.36 and the Dow jumped 619.05 points or 1.6 percent to 40,212.71. Largely reflecting the historic rally on Wednesday, the major averages also posted strong gains for the week. The Nasdaq skyrocketed by 7.3 percent, while the S&P and the Dow spiked by 5.7 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively. The significant strength that emerged on Wall Street came as concerns about rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China were partly offset by comments from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying President Donald Trump is 'optimistic' about reaching a trade deal with China. A surge by the price of crude oil also contributed to substantial strength among oil service stocks, as reflected by the 4.7 percent spike by the Philadelphia Oil Service Index. Biotechnology stocks also turned in a particularly strong performance on the day, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index jumping by 3.3 percent. Brokerage, steel and semiconductor stocks also saw significant strength, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.
Asia
The Asian stock markets are rising strongly at the start of the new week. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong gains more than 2 per cent, the Nikkei-225 rises by almost 2 per cent, but most other markets in Asia as well as the stock exchanges in Australia and New Zealand also recover. TDK recovers by 5.4 per cent and Kioxia Holdings by 5.0 per cent.
Bonds
In the U.S. bond market, treasuries moved sharply lower after ending the previous session roughly flat. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, jumped 9.9 basis points to a two-month closing high of 4.493 percent.
Analysis
UBS lowers Rieter target to CHF 101 (135) – Buy
UBS lowers Arbonia target to CHF 11 (13.20) – Neutral
Goldman Sachs lowers BASF target to 54 (60) EUR/Buy – Trader
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